J.P. Morgan market commentary on Chinese and global economic data (Mar 15, 2012)

Eye on the Market | March 15, 2012 J.P Morgan Topics: Is US data as good as it looks? Is Chinese data as bad as it looks? Is European data as bizarre as it looks? adequacy rules; created a program through which municipalities can issue bonds with government guarantees (rather than having to borrow from banks); eased first time homebuyer restrictions; and injected capital into its biggest banks. What the China debate is really about is whether these measures will reinvigorate growth or not. Since much of the recent slowdown was self-imposed due to inflation concerns, it seems reasonable to us to expect the Chinese economy to respond positively to stimulus should it be reapplied. We are not big buyers of Chinese onshore equities for reasons we have explained before, but we do rely on 7%-8% Chinese GDP growth to fuel economic activity in Asia that underpins many of our investments there. As things stand now, we see no reason why this growth target will not be achieved. Chinese economic monitor, percent change*, YoY, sa, 2006 to present Total loans Money supply \ Non-food CPI Passenger car Fixed asset Housing price to sales investment income Shenzhen Electricity Cement production production production Source: Nationa Bureau of Statistics, PROC, China Automotive Information, China Economic Information Network, CLSA-Markit, Haver Analytics. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, ISI Group, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. * PMI data areindexlevel. Housingprice toincome, cement production and steel productionare as of Dec. 2011. All the other data are as of Feb. 2012. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer “What a diffrence a day makes’, Dinah Washington, 1959, Mercury Records “Banks Deleveraging and Real Estate”, Morgan Stanley Research, Francesca Tondi, March 15, 2012 The ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) claims papal infallibility on its historical recession predictions. ECB = European Central Bank. EMU = European Economic and Monetary Union The material contained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further, the views expressed herein may differ from that contained in J.P. Morgan research reports. The above summary/prices/quotes/statistics have been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, any yield referenced is indicative and subject to change. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. References to the performance or character of our portfolios generally refer to our Balanced Model Portfolios constructed by J.P. Morgan. It is a proxy for client performance and may not represent actual transactions or investments in client accounts. The model portfolio can be implemented across brokerage or managed accounts depending on the unique objectives of each client and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed for specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, N.A, and its affiliates. Securities are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), Member NYSE, FINRA and SIPC. Securities products purchased or sold through JPMS are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ("FDIC"); are not deposits or other obligations of its bank or thrift affiliates and are not guaranteed by its bank or thrift affiliates; and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal invested. Not all investment ideas referenced are suitable for all investors. Speak with your J.P. Morgan Representative concerning your personal situation. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Private Investments may engage in leveraging and other speculative practices that may increase the risk of investment loss, can be highly illiquid, are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuations to investors and may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information. Typically such investment ideas can only be offered to suitable investors through a confidential offering memorandum which fully describes all terms, conditions, and risks. IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates do not provide tax advice. Accordingly, any discussion of U.S. tax matters contained herein (including any attachments) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, in connection with the promotion, marketing or recommendation by anyone unaffiliated with JPMorgan Chase & Co. of any of the matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties. Note that J.P. Morgan is not a licensed insurance provider. ©2012 JPMorgan Chase & Co; All rights reserved E HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_024134