Federal Civilian Headcount Trends and Potential Savings Scenarios

Federal Headcount Has Risen Over Past Five Years and Is Above Trendline Level Federal Civilian Headcount & Share of Total Employment, 1988 - 2009 2,500 ~ 62-5 3 we ee ee ee ee ei ‘sammm Federal Civilian Full-Time Equivalent Employees -- 2.5% ——% Share of Total Employment (right axis) a) wo g — — Federal Civilian Headcount Linear Trendline 2 = 2,000 - -_ pine Ses — Hos eee es RO TER ahs He ibs A em ats te — 2.0% Lu 7S l c Soe = 5 1,500 - OR EeOeaei eee Ee == 2 -- 1.5% > ia _~ ~300K a #2 Potential iS Eo Ww a Headcount = e ‘ £ S 1,000 - si fs -a--i ia --e -e- — -~ Seton 1.0% pd LL _ c ° & x 2 oO = 500 - in fs > ia: pe RE BBS coe 2 mi mo 0.5% c oO i) 3 wa WL 0 T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T 1 0.0% 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 KP Data source: BEA (1988-2009). i USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 347 Reduce Headcount: Mathematical Illustration on Reducing Federal Headcount — Could Save Up to $275 Billion Over Next 10 Years, or 4% of Total Deficit Scenario Analysis on Potential Federal Headcount Reduction & Impact on Budget Deficits Headcount Savings ($B) For USA Inc. Over Reduction F2009 F2010-19E F2010-85E (000) Scenario 1 -- Trim Headcount by 1% $2 $17 $44 20 % of Budget Deficits 0% 0% 0% Scenario 2 -- Trim Headcount by 5% $11 $91 $219 98 % of Budget Deficits 1% 1% 1% Scenario 3 -- Trim Headcount by 10% $23 $183 $439 195 % of Budget Deficits 2% 3% 3% Scenario 4 - Trendline* -- Trim Headcount by 15% % of Budget Deficits Note: Federal fiscal year ends in September. *Based on 20-year trend line, federal civilian headcount would have been 15% below actual levels. KP www.kpcb.com USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 348 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_021015