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ACKRELL
CAPI L
CAPITA CHAPTER VI U.S. and International Cannabis Market Estimates
= International Legal Cannabis Market Forecast
As previously discussed, cannabis is the most widely consumed drug worldwide: an estimated 183 mil-
lion people between the ages of 15 and 64 consumed cannabis in 2017. Cannabis legalization is gain-
ing momentum around the world. At least 20 countries now have medical laws that facilitate patient
access to cannabis or concentrates for treating specified medical conditions. Select countries with such
laws include Australia, Canada, Colombia and Germany; countries without such laws include China,
Japan, Russia and the United States. While the merits of medical cannabis are currently driving legal-
ization, we believe that—like Uruguay and numerous U.S. states—other countries will ultimately
enact and implement recreational laws.
Canada’s legal cannabis market (presently limited to medical cannabis) is currently the largest fed-
erally legal cannabis market in the world, estimated at $1.5 billion in 2017. We anticipate that Canada
will enact and implement its proposed recreational Cannabis Act in mid-2018 and that implementa-
tion will significantly expand the size of Canada’s overall market.
International Market Size Estimate Methodology
Similar to the methodology for our U.S. estimates, the primary factors for our international legal can-
nabis market estimates are the estimated number of eligible consumers, penetration rates and monthly
spending. Of course, these and other factors affecting market size vary considerably across continents
and regions because each country has its own unique market characteristics, including laws, culture,
religions, consumer preferences and disposable income.
We do not attempt to estimate the timing of legal changes that affect consumer penetration rates.
Rather, we estimate the size of potential international markets at maturity when penetration rates have
stabilized. The time required for markets in particular countries to reach maturity will vary widely and,
like the U.S. market, could be 10 years or more.
To estimate average monthly consumer spending, we analyzed a country’s per capita average
monthly income and assumed a certain percentage was spent on cannabis products. The resulting
estimates of monthly spending in developed countries differs vastly from that in developing countries.
International Market Size Estimates
Our estimates for the international legal cannabis market include estimates for select countries with
medical or recreational laws and certain countries we believe may develop into legal markets for can-
nabis in the foreseeable future. The following table lists each identified country, ranked by Gross
Domestic Product (GDP), with its estimated adult population, monthly cannabis consumer spending
and potential market value.
© 2017 Ackrell Capital, LLC | Member FINRA/SIPC 113
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