Skip to main content
Skip to content
Case File
d-16451House OversightOther

Bank of America research note linking Donald Trump to potential undervaluation of Mexican peso

The document is a standard internal research memo discussing a macro‑economic model that includes Trump’s polling numbers as a factor in MXN valuation. It contains no new allegations, financial flow d Claims the Mexican peso may be up to 15% undervalued due to Trump‑related market dynamics. Suggests a buying strategy for MXN if Hillary Clinton wins the election. Includes internal contact informati

Date
November 11, 2025
Source
House Oversight
Reference
House Oversight #010609
Pages
1
Persons
2
Integrity
No Hash Available

Summary

The document is a standard internal research memo discussing a macro‑economic model that includes Trump’s polling numbers as a factor in MXN valuation. It contains no new allegations, financial flow d Claims the Mexican peso may be up to 15% undervalued due to Trump‑related market dynamics. Suggests a buying strategy for MXN if Hillary Clinton wins the election. Includes internal contact informati

Tags

investment-researchbank-of-americadonald-trumpfinancial-analysismexican-pesoforeign-exchangehouse-oversight

Ask AI About This Document

0Share
PostReddit

Extracted Text (OCR)

EFTA Disclosure
Text extracted via OCR from the original document. May contain errors from the scanning process.
Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for amanda.ens@baml.com Liquid Insight Trump’s effect on MXN Key takeaways ¢ We provide an empirical analysis of Donald Trump's potential effects on the Mexican peso ¢ Our analysis suggests the exchange rate is perhaps as much as 15% undervalued « We remain neutral for now given US election risks are likely to remain high in the near term By Claudio Irigoyen and Ezequiel Aguirre Chart of the day: MXN may be as much as 15% undervalued ND oO ee) a) + 2. 2. S + a cs cs s x ao a NOE Ann OO NOE ADs OO 2014 2015 2016 Model (with Trump) = VX Model (without Trump) Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg Trump’s effect on MXN We provide an empirical analysis of Donald Trump’s effects on the Mexican peso. Our analysis suggests the exchange rate is perhaps as much as 15% undervalued. In our view, buying the Mexican peso likely would prove a profitable strategy if Hillary Clinton wins. However, we remain neutral for now given US election risks are likely to remain high in the near term. A model of MXN weekly returns including Trump We estimate a model of MXN returns with standard financial fundamentals that also includes Donald Trump’s RealClearPolitics polling average in the US presidential election. It is generally accepted now that Trump’s chances in the US election have been a major driver of the Mexican peso (Chart 1). Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in FX markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. BofA Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 6 to 7. Analyst Certification on page 5. 11668923 Timestamp: 22 September 2016 12:30AM EDT Bankof America Merrill Lynch 22 September 2016 Rates and Currencies Research Global Global Rates & Currencies Research MLI (UK) Claudio lrigoyen LatAm FI/FX Strategy/Economist MLPF&S +1 646 855 1734 claudio.irigoyen@baml.com Ezequiel Aguirre LatAm FI/FX Strategist MLPF&S +1 646 855 9689 ezequiel.aguirre@baml.com Adarsh Sinha FX Strategist Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) +852 3508 7155 adarsh.sinha@baml.com Yang Chen Rates Strategist Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) +852 3508 8695 ychen8@baml.com See Team Page for Full List of Contributors Recent Liquid Insight Publications 21 Sep 2016 Eur FRA-OIS and 3s6s_ basis: tighter, despite wider credit spreads 20 Sep 2016 BoJ preview: Bod to try, try again 19 Sep 2016 A cautiously hawkish Fed 16 Sep 2016 UK _inflation-linked_— when the “pass-through” has passed through 15 Sep 2016 Getting unreal 14 Sep 2016 The real rate quide to FX 13 Sep 2016 Consumption Gumption 12 Sep 2016 UK: Better but not good 9Sep 2016 The Fed's cacophony of sound 8 Sep 2016 EEMEA: The ECB buys EM too

Technical Artifacts (9)

View in Artifacts Browser

Email addresses, URLs, phone numbers, and other technical indicators extracted from this document.

Emailadarsh.sinha@baml.com
Emailamanda.ens@baml.com
Emailclaudio.irigoyen@baml.com
Emailezequiel.aguirre@baml.com
Emailychen8@baml.com
Phone+1 646 855 1734
Phone+1 646 855 9689
Phone+852 3508 7155
Phone+852 3508 8695

Related Documents (6)

DOJ Data Set 9OtherUnknown

DS9 Document EFTA00690384

47p
House OversightUnknown

Alan Dershowitz tweets accusations of perjury against [REDACTED - Survivor] and Sarah Ransomme, cites Secret Service records on Al Gore and mentions alleged sex tapes of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Alan Dershowitz tweets accusations of perjury against [REDACTED - Survivor] and Sarah Ransomme, cites Secret Service records on Al Gore and mentions alleged sex tapes of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump The passage provides a concrete claim by a high‑profile attorney that secret service records disprove a story linking Al Gore to Epstein’s island, and it references alleged sex tapes involving two former presidents. While the tweet itself is unverified and lacks supporting documentation, it points to potential secret‑service documentation and possible perjury by named individuals, which could merit follow‑up. However, the lack of direct evidence, dates, or transaction details limits its immediate investigative utility. Key insights: Dershowitz names [REDACTED - Survivor] and Sarah Ransomme as perjury accusers.; Claims Secret Service records show Al Gore never visited Epstein’s island.; Alleges Sarah Ransomme possesses sex tapes of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

1p
DOJ Data Set 9OtherUnknown

Subject:

From: To: Subject: - u is airs ews ne Ing e nes ay, u y 29, 2020 Date: Wed, 29 Jul 2020 10:25:50 +0000 c Importan e: Normal Mobile version and searchable archives available at fbi.bulletinintelligence.com. 1B1 News Briefing TO: THE DIRECTOR AND SENIOR STAFF DATE: WEDNESDAY, JULY 29, 2020 6:30 AM EDT TODAY'S TABLE OF CONTENTS LEADING THE NEWS • Barr Spars With Democrats At Contentious House Hearing. • Barr Says Democrats Have Tried To "Discredit" Him. • Barr Says Bash Investigating "High Number Of Unmaskings" During Obama Administration. PROTESTS • Memo Reveals Federal Agents Sought Role In Suppressing Protests Since Start. • New Mexico Governor Addresses Concerns About Federal Agents In Albuquerque. • Report: US, Oregon In Talks About Pulling Agents From Portland. • Portland Fines Federal Government For Unpermitted Fence Outside Courthouse. • US Park Police Head: Decision To Clear Protesters Not Linked To Trump "Photo Op." • Hundreds Of Cases Involving LAPD Off

47p
DOJ Data Set 9OtherUnknown

From: "Jeffrey E." <jeevacation@gmail.com>

8p
DOJ Data Set 9OtherUnknown

DS9 Document EFTA01183526

34p
House OversightUnknown

Alleged sealed deposition claims ties to CIA hack, Russian/Anonymous assistance, and compromising material on Clinton, Trump, Prince Andrew

Alleged sealed deposition claims ties to CIA hack, Russian/Anonymous assistance, and compromising material on Clinton, Trump, Prince Andrew The passage references a sealed deposition that allegedly contains explosive claims of foreign intelligence (Russia), hack‑by‑the‑CIA, and compromising media on high‑profile political figures. While the source is a plaintiff’s counsel and the details are unverified, the names (Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Bill Clinton, Prince Andrew) and alleged involvement of intelligence agencies make it a potentially valuable lead for further document review and source verification. Key insights: Sealed deposition (M6) allegedly includes detailed sexual allegations involving Bill Clinton, Prince Andrew, Donald Trump, and Richard Branson.; Plaintiff claims she received help from "the Russians" and the hacker group Anonymous after a CIA‑linked email hack.; Alleged statement that Hillary Clinton sent "Special Agents Forces Men" to intimidate a friend during the 2016 campaign.

1p

Forum Discussions

This document was digitized, indexed, and cross-referenced with 1,400+ persons in the Epstein files. 100% free, ad-free, and independent.

Annotations powered by Hypothesis. Select any text on this page to annotate or highlight it.