Laffer paper predicts Trump win and recounts Reagan 'Kitchen Cabinet' history

LAFFER ASSOCIATES Supply-Side Investment Research May 19, 2016 10-yr T-Note: 1.86% DJIA: 17,526.62 NASDAQ: 4,739.12 S&P 500: 2,047.63 S&P 500 Undervalued: 151.8% GAME ON [Updated 7/6/2016] By Arthur B. Laffer, Ph.D. Summary To save you the agony of plodding through this fascinating, information-rich paper, I'll get straight to the point: Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States after having won an easy victory over Hillary Clinton in November 2016. The reasons: |.) | Section one shows that the essential characteristics of the narrative for the Trump campaign and the Reagan campaign of 1980 are surprisingly similar, which would point to a Trump landslide. ll.) Section two describes the poor state of the current economy using detrended GDP per adult, the ratio of employment- to-adult-population and new home sales per 1,000 adults and how these measures strongly indicate a Republican victory. lll.) Using historical data for the Gallup poll question “are you satisfied” and presidential election dates, this section would point to an overwhelming Republican win in November 2016. IV.) Relying on voter turnout data this year versus earlier years and party selection, the Republicans have a large advantage coming into the Fall election. V.) Basing our forecast on the past eight years of Congressional elections—House and Senate—as well as state elections of house, senate and governors, the Republicans should be exceedingly confident about the upcoming presidential election. VI.) Taking careful measure of what both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have done in the public eye, Trump has the issues on his side. I. 1979-1980 How the Reagan Revolution Began In early 1979, a group of Ronald Reagan acolytes—some 10 to 15 in total—got together in Justin Dart’s office at Rexall (the corner of La Cienega and Beverly) and there they formed the original Reagan Executive Advisory Committee. With very few exceptions (initially only me), this group had been called Reagan’s Kitchen Cabinet. Those present and those also invited included Justin Dart, Holmes Tuttle, Jack Wrather, Bill French Smith, Bill Wilson, Earle Jorgensen, Ben Biaggini, Ted Cummings, Alfred Bloomingdale, Charles Wick, Henry Salvatori et moi. | was the youngest of the group by three decades. And, in fact, the only way Justin Dart could convince the others to let me be a member was that they needed someone to keep the minutes of the meetings, i.e. as a secretary. In speaking with a reporter about the Kitchen Cabinet, here’s what Jus Dart had to say: “In addressing the question of how many of Reagan's friends actually qualify as members, Dart said: ‘Damn fewer than is generally advertised.’”"' That just says it all. The purpose of this committee was to provide guidance and support to the emerging presidential candidacy of one Ronald Reagan. The members were to a person close, close, close friends and supporters of Ronald Reagan or husbands of Nancy Reagan’s best friends. And the race for the White House began. During this pre-primary and primary process, Ronald Reagan was disrespected and abused by a significant segment of the Republican establishment. He was called an empty suit, a trigger-happy California cowboy, only an actor, a person who spoke words others wrote, a racist, a bigot, a divorcée, a war monger and the man who would start the Third World War. My favorite slur came from none other than the Democratic Party’s “éminence grise” Clark Clifford? who referred to Ronald Reagan as an “amiable dunce.” The torrent of anti-Reagan epithets never stopped. 1 “industrialist Justin Dart has declared President Reagan's ‘kitchen cabinet',” United Press International, March 26, 1981. http:/Awww.upi.com/Archives/1981/03/26/Industrialist-Justin-Dart-has-declared-President-Reagans-kitchen-cabinet/4240354430800/ 2 There is a display at the Young Americans Foundation in Santa Barbara of a number of these anti-Reagan videos by any number of Republican and Democratic stalwarts. > As if receiving divine retribution for his nasty ways, Clark Clifford, who served as Secretary of Defense for President Johnson and as an advisor to Presidents Truman, Kennedy and Carter, was indicted in the early 1990s on charges of conspiracy, fraud and bribery surrounding the Bank of Credit and Commerce International scandal. For more, see: http:/Avww.nytimes.com/1998/1 0/1 1/us/clark-clifford-a-major-adviser-to-four-presidents-is-dead-at-91.html?pagewanted=all 103 Murphy Court, Nashville, TN 37203 (615) 460-0100 FAX (615) 460-0102 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025296