Market Outlook Commentary Post-2016 Election

bad (higher volatility) and investors will have to reposition portfolios, rebalancing when necessary, in order to take advantage of the new era. Prior to the U.S. presidential election, and even dating back to the summer months when bond yields bottomed, the economy was already beginning to improve. Corporate earnings were picking up, the consumer was spending at a healthy clip, there were some subtle signs of positive surprises in European economic activity, and the downturn in emerging markets (and negative earnings revisions) ceased. We were certainly not waving the celebratory flag on growth, but the economy was getting up off the ground, which is what risk assets, including equities, need sometimes. However, the S&P 500—a major benchmark for U.S. stocks--had lost momentum heading into the election, as investors worried that the secular stagnation era would continue and that monetary policy had lost its effectiveness. Market sentiment changed dramatically during the early morning hours on November 9. The surprise victory by Donald Trump caught many investors off-guard. The potential for fiscal stimulus measures, reduced regulation, corporate tax reform and other potential pro-growth initiatives increased. Animal spirits perked up. Investor positioning was heavily skewed toward long-duration fixed income, low-volatility equities and high-dividend-paying companies. These areas significantly outperformed in the first half of the year but started to lose momentum once rates bottomed mid-year. However, investor positioning did not change materially at first. Portfolios were still generally overexposed to higher- quality, rate-sensitive investments— otherwise known as “bond proxies.” In our Hills Have Eyes strategy report, published on November 16, we outlined the need to rebalance portfolios given our belief that we were already transitioning toward the late-cycle expansion phase and that the new enthusiasm for pro-growth policies would begin to accelerate investor flows toward more cyclical investments. Given the high degree of underexposure to late- cycle investments by investors, we believed such a rotation would cause a “melt-up” in equities toward new highs over time. Diversification and rebalancing will be key So, how are we going to manage portfolios in a world undergoing a major market regime shift, one that is transitioning from the era of secular stagnation to fiscal reflation, and one that still has a considerable amount of uncertainty? We are going to become more prescriptive, remain diversified and balanced, but with more exposure to pro-growth, pro-cyclical areas. We will also likely rebalance more often throughout the year as investor rotation gathers momentum during 2017 and into 2018; and we look to periods of volatility as opportunities to add to areas we favor. "Fixed income still represents an important portfolio diversifier—and a volatility dampener in unforeseen worst-case scenarios." CHRISTOPHER HY ZY CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, BANK OF AMERICA GLOBAL WEALTH AND INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT We expect business, consumer and investor confidence to continue to head higher well into 2017, with most of the newly expected growth to come in 2018, which should underpin equities for most of the year. Higher nominal growth, an improved picture for corporate profits and continued HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014528