Email chain discussing oil options, upcoming Crimea referendum, and potential market moves tied to U.S. strategic petroleum reserve release

From: Vinit Sahni Sent: 3/14/2014 2:24:19 AM To: jeeyacation@gmail.com CC: Paul Morris Subject: Re: Oil options Attachments: graycol.gif Importance: High Classification: External Communication I am on a plane to and from tokyo tomorrow next 2-3 days, if u need something otherwise available 24/7 on +447703720599. Vinit Sahni -----Original Message-----From: Vinit Sahni Sent: 03/13/2014 09:47 PM EDT To: jeevacation@gmail.com Cc: Paul Morris Subject: Fw: Oil options Classification: External Communication Jeffrey - apologise if this long to execute next time well be much quicker. Nay Gupta -----Original Message-----From: Nay Gupta Sent: 03/12/2014 09:35 PM GDT To: njeevacation@gmail.com" <jeevacation@gmail.com> Cc: Tazia Smith; Paul Morris/db/] Vinit Sahni/db/ Subject: Oil options Jeffrey Just got off the phone with Vinit. DB stopped marketmaking OTC oil options - for short dated Pd go for exch traded - better liquidity and lower transaction costs in and out. My central scenario - Kerry Lavrov meeting Friday will be a bust and the Crimea referendum this weekend will result in "yes" given the 59pct ethic Russian makeup. Sunday/ Monday sanction rhetoric from ranging from g8 expulsion to Iran-style bank embargo is raised a notch. Russia follows with more threats of counter-sanctions. My sense is the Obama 5m of 696m SPR release is to show Merkel and co he will step in. He needs to because there are 8 small European and Baltic countries that rec 70%+ of their gas from Russia. Germany gets 30%. Cross asset correlations outside of the US are increasing past few days - eg copper and the Turkish lira hourly charts are on top of each other past 4 days. I'm worried there is a 30-40pct(?) chance of a hard risk off move in markets in first half of next week - more focused on European equities, copper, EM FX (Turkey, ZAR, Ruble etc) than SPX. In that scenario oil is way up. Exchange WTI calls - there are 2 options (as of 3pm est): 5day expiry 17march 2014 underlying clj4 97.92 and 35d expiry 16apri12014 underlying clk4 97.59 ** The 5 day options are a bit short - one possibility is sell a 3usd out of the money put (95.5 strike) for 20cents and buy a 2usd OTM 100 call for 25. Net pay Scents. But 5d is a bit short for me. **For 35d expiry You could look at selling 91.50 (6usd OTM put) for 56cents and buying 103c (5.5usd OTM) for 58cents or the 102c (4.5usd OTM) for 76cents. HOUSE OVERSIGHT 022260CL1 <comdty> OMON on Bloomberg has live strikes and bid/ask. If 5d is too short and 35d is too long / not enough gamma, Tazia may be able to source liquidity from the street. Am Cc'ing her for any live pricing or additional comment Best Nay c h This e-mail may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and delete this e-mail. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. Please refer to http://www.db.com/en/content/eu disclosures.htm for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures and to http://www.db.com/unitedkingdom/content/privacy.htm for information about privacy. HOUSE OVERSIGHT 022261