Associated Bancorp earnings outlook mentions Trump administration relief and CRE growth plans

private tech based lenders were cautiously optimistic that hiccups from earlier this year were behind the sector, while the private payments companies stressed the importance of partnering with incumbent leaders and the need to maintain safety standards. US Banks Top Takeaways Associated Bancorp (ASB) B-3-7, Underperform A strong Midwest market should lead to steady growth: ASB’s CEO Phillip Flynn and CFO Chris Niles highlighted the strong fundamentals of the bank’s Midwest footprint with its low unemployment and a strong manufacturing base. While commenting on the potential for relief coming out of DC under the new Trump administration, management noted that shortage of skilled workers was probably the biggest issue impeding businesses in its footprint versus higher taxes or an overly stringent regulatory environment. = CRE represents a growth opportunity: Management was positive on growth prospects within the CRE loan portfolio, which represents 24% of avg loans as of 3Q16. Management is targeting CRE to represent 30-40% of the portfolio in order for consumer, CRE, and commercial to each comprise approximately a third of the loan book. In the near term, executives see opportunities in the CRE space in 2017 as pricing and structure improve benefitting from a pullback by lenders with high CRE concentration. = Energy portfolio should begin to stabilize: While management analyzes the energy book on a credit by credit basis, it noted caution if oil prices fell significantly. However, management noted that the energy book reflects lower energy prices as new energy loans price in lower hydrocarbon pricing vs. the maturing loans. Regarding energy loan growth, management expects muted growth going forward as the benefit from new loans will most likely be offset by continued pay-downs by existing customers. = Dec rate hike to surface in 1Q17 margin: Management expects a Dec rate hike to have little impact on 4Q given that its LIBOR based portfolio would re-price on Jan 1. On the other hand, interest expense is expected to rise as deposits that are linked to benchmark rates re-price higher. Last year, the margin fell 1bp QoQ following the Fed rate hike as deposit costs rose 8bp QoQ. Management noted that 1Q16 saw lower loan renewal rates and compression from cost of funds, but that its cost of funds are in a better position this year, which should help lead to a modest positive impact to the margin in 1Q17 from a Dec rate hike. = Fee businesses could get augmented by additional M&A: Within fees, management views insurance as the best opportunity from non-bank M&A. Recall that ASB completed the acquisition of Anmann & Martin in 02/15. Management noted that it saw a significant opportunity from providing consulting services around employee benefits to small-to-medium sized businesses. Moreover, any changes to the Affordable Care Act that creates added uncertainty in the market would present an incremental revenue growth opportunity for this business. ea Bankof America 10 2016 Future of Financials Conference | 17 November 2016 Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014324