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d-28777House OversightOther

Morgan Stanley Research SOTP Valuation of The Carlyle Group

The passage is a standard financial analysis and valuation model for The Carlyle Group, containing no allegations, transactions, or connections to influential actors beyond the firm itself. It offers Provides projected pre‑tax and after‑tax core FRE per share for Carlyle. Shows sensitivity scenarios for upside/downside cases and conversion to C‑corp. Includes implied carry value and multiple assu

Date
November 11, 2025
Source
House Oversight
Reference
House Oversight #025575
Pages
1
Persons
0
Integrity
No Hash Available

Summary

The passage is a standard financial analysis and valuation model for The Carlyle Group, containing no allegations, transactions, or connections to influential actors beyond the firm itself. It offers Provides projected pre‑tax and after‑tax core FRE per share for Carlyle. Shows sensitivity scenarios for upside/downside cases and conversion to C‑corp. Includes implied carry value and multiple assu

Tags

valuationmorgan-stanleycarlyle-groupresearchhouse-oversightfinance
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Browse House Oversight Committee ReleasesHouse Oversight #025575

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NORTH AMERICA INSIGHT ~~ i. od Morgan Stanley | RESEARCH The Carlyle Group Management SOTP and Sensitivity Analysis Exhibit 39: SOTP for CG The Carlyle Group (CG) Suimeof-the-Parte|Gomponents uno Downside Case Upside Case C- CG Price C-Corp Corp (Ce) SOTP Conversion Conversion 2018e Pre-Tax Core FRE / Sh $0.29 $0.29 0% $0.29 0% Tax Rate 24% 24% 0% 24% 0% Fee Rel cand ated 20186 After-Tax Core FRE / Sh $0.22 $0.22 0% $0.22 0% arnings FRE Multiple 15.0x 15.0x 0.0x 22.5x 7.5X Core FRE Value $3.34 $3.34 0% $5.01 50% + Balance Balance Sheet Net Cash and 5 5 Sheet Investments / Sh (as of 3Q17) Bee) see Ue ES) OM + Accrued Net Accrued Carry / Sh (as of ° ° Carry 3Q17) $4.40 $4.40 0% $4.40 0% + Avg Net Carried interest / Sh , 5 Market (2018e-2020e) $2.85 $2.17 -24% $2.17 -24% Implied Carry ; Value Multiple 6.0x 6.9x 1.0x 8.0x 2.0x Market Implied Carry Value ~ ‘s17.01! $15.03 12% $17.26 1% Total Value $25.60 $23.62 -8% $27.52 8% Valuation 2018e EPS $3.03 $2.80 -8% $2.80 -8% P/E 8.5x 8.5x 0.0x 9.8x 1.4x Source: Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates Exhibit 40: Exhibit 41: CG Estimated Potential Share Price in C-corp Conversion CG Estimated % Change in Current Share Price Multiple on Future Performance Fees Multiple on Future Performance Fees 5.0x 6.0x 7.0x 8.0x 11.0x 5.0x 6.0x 7.0x 11.0x 9.0x 10.0x 8.0x 9.0x 10.0x Fee Related Earnings Multiple Fee Related Earnings Multiple Source: Thomson Reuters, Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates Source: Thomson Reuters, Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

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