Merrill Lynch note on Saudi National Transformation Plan and consumer sector outlook

Consumer: a necessary pain Abdelrali El Jattari >> Merrill Lynch (DIFC) abdelrali.eljattari@baml.com The Saudi government initiatives taken in the National Transformation Plan (NTP) will transform the Saudi consumer landscape. We note a mixed effect on the sector: ° On the positive side, we anticipate 1) job creation for Saudi nationals in the private sector with a big focus on Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs); 2) a strong emphasis on education; 3) an ongoing increase of the participation of women in the workforce; 4) an increase of the percentage of self-sufficiency in broiler production which should ultimately support local producers; and, 5) a significant pick-up of the religious tourism during Haj and Umrah. e On the negative side, we anticipate 1) a rationalization of subsidies for water and electricity; and, 2) a more competitive retail environment, more open to international players, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). Prefer staples over discretionary While slowing consumer credit and weaker private sector consumption growth amid a young population do not support Saudi spending in both staple and discretionary items, we expect staple-related stocks such as Al Othaim and Savola to be better positioned to capture the marginal consumption. This is principally due to their exposure to necessities (food items) in a very fragmented market. Having said that, we expect more pressure on the opex of all Saudi consumer corporates, while revenue growth outlook will remain subdued in the short-term given the weaker consumer confidence and disposable income. A more moderate growth outlook; Saudi female workforce drives private sector Following a 12% 10-year CAGR fuelled by the rise in household income, we conclude that the retail sector will continue to play an important role in the rising participation of the Saudi workforce, women in particular (10,000 in 2010 vs 120,000 in 2014 according to the Ministry of Labor) supporting their disposable income in the long-term. Overall, the Saudi retail sector is one of the largest employers in Saudi Arabia with 1.5mn workers (17% of the Saudi workforce) of which low-cost foreign workers represent 80%. This implies that Saudis working in the retail account for 300,000 (40% are female), doubling in 4 years. Needed reforms: better macro at the expense of micro While we acknowledge that the targets set by the government are paving the way for the right reforms (development of the private sectors, a more competitive economic landscape, attraction of FDI), we expect the Saudi retail outlook to be marked by a slower growth in the coming years. In particular, we highlight few major challenges for the effective implementation of the plan: 1) incentives to enrol Saudis into consumer- related jobs suggesting rising opex pressure for consumer stocks; and, 2) 20% public payroll cut will put pressure on Saudi disposable income in the short-term given than c80% of the Saudi workforce is in the public sector. Key strategic objectives and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) to watch The National Transformation Plan (NTP) outlays several strategic objectives and related KPIs to watch by ministry which we believe will impact the Saudi consumer universe: e The Ministry of Economy and Planning is looking to 1) expand privatization of governmental services; 2) increase the efficiency of government subsidy programs; 3) establish specific zones with competitive advantages to enhance investments; 58 GEMs Paper #26 | 30 June 2016 3S Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_016168