Internal trading risk memo outlining market exposure scenarios

Risks to trades Equity trades ¢ The risks to long divi basket & Pharma trades are a steepening of rates curves and better than expected growth outside of Europe causing investors to rotate out of bond proxies. Plus our analysts’ expectations of improved earnings from the healthcare pipeline not coming through. « The risks to trade dividend future trade is lower than expected profits for major European sectors, e.g. Banks, Oils, causing a correction in dividend expectations. « The risk to EM Asia ex-Japan is from a stronger USD and faster than expected US rates hiking cycle. Trade tensions with the new US administration an additional risk now. « — Risk to long Nikkei trade is a reversal of JPY weakness or a change in policy by the BO). Fixed income trades « The risks to the US rates trades are a dovish Fed responding to a tightening of monetary conditions before the fiscal boost kicks in. Disappointment on the fiscal stimulus also a risk. The risk to the UK inflation trade is that the BoE doesn’t respond to expected rising inflation by raising rates faster. ¢ The risks to the Industrial spreads trade is a deterioration of US industrial growth and step away from credit purchasing by ECB/ BoE. e The risks the AT1 trade are the ECB pulling out of the credit markets causing a correction in the riskier portion of the market and bank profitability deteriorating raising concerns about default. e — The risks to our XOVER trade are Eurozone growth disappointing and a risk-off event in markets causing a flight to quality amongst credit investors. Volatility trades ¢ Our equity vol trades are hedges, the risks are that they expire worthless due to the lack of a financial event in China and persistent low vol spread in equity markets supported by higher growth. FX trades e The main risk to our FX trades is of a more dovish than expected Fed, a more hawkish than expected BOE, improved politics in South Africa/weaker oil price and a more dovish Riksbank. Bankof America 22 Global Cross Asset Strategy - Year Ahead | 30 November 2016 Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014453