Generic analysis of House GOP losses and Senate vote thresholds

‘POLLING Election results ee STATION Along with the House GOP majority, Senate Republicans will unambiguously set the agenda in the new Congress. However, with a closely divided Senate, Republicans will be well short of the 60 votes necessary under the Senaterules to bring debate to aclose (cloture) and advance controversial legislation without votes from the other party. Narrow Republican and Democratic majoritiesin the recent past have both found their legislative agendas stalled unless they were willing to compromise to attract bipartisan support. One area where 60 votes are not required is confirming appointmentsto the Administration and the Federal courts, with the exception of the Supreme Court. There could be speculation about whether Senate Republicans would consider a rules change to create a 51 vote threshold for Supreme Court nominees, also known as the “nuclear option.” But any serious consideration on this front is far from certain. Republican House losses in the election were minimized for a number of reasons, including the Republican turnout for Donald Trump, the relatively static map created by the post-2010 redistricting process, and highly localized campaigns run by Republican House Members in marginal districts where support for Trump was weaker. With a loss in the single digits, the GOP majority goes from 246 members to somewhere in the 230s, giving Republicans a margin of 20 or so seats versus the current 30. EY 3 | Election 2016 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_022375