Jeffrey Epstein email discussing oil options, geopolitical risk, and potential market moves ahead of Crimea referendum

From: Jeffrey Epstein [jeevacation@gmail.com] Sent: 3/14/2014 3:39:28 AM To: Vin Shi Subject: Re: Oil options Attachments: graycol.gif Importance: — High thanks 4 hours for a quote ina normally fast moving market ? confirms my voiced concerns On Thu, Mar 13, 2014 at 10:24 PM, Vinit Sahni a wrote: Classification: External Communication Iam ona plane to and from tokyo tomorrow next 2-3 days, if u need something otherwise available 24/7 on Vinit Sahni ----- Original Message -----From: Vinit Sahni Sent: 03/13/2014 09:47 PM EDT To: jeevacation@gmail.com Ce: Paul Morris Subject: Fw: Oil options Classification: External Communication Jeffrey - apologise if this long to execute next time we'll be much quicker. Nav Gupta ----- Original Message -----From: Nav Gupta Sent: 03/12/2014 09:35 PM GDT To: "jeevacation@gmail.com" <jeevacation@gmail.com> Ce: Tazia Smith; Paul Morris/db/— ME; Vinit Sahni/d ii! Subject: Oil options Jeffrey Just got off the phone with Vinit. DB stopped marketmaking OTC oil options - for short dated I'd go for exch traded - better liquidity and lower transaction costs in and out. My central scenario - Kerry Lavrov meeting Friday will be a bust and the Crimea referendum this weekend will result in "yes" given the 59pct ethic Russian makeup. Sunday/ Monday sanction rhetoric from ranging from g8 expulsion to Iran-style bank embargo is raised a notch. Russia follows with more threats of counter- sanctions. My sense is the Obama 5m of 696m SPR release is to show Merkel and co he will step in. He needs to because there are 8 small European and Baltic countries that rec 70%+ of their gas from Russia. Germany gets 30%. Cross asset correlations outside of the US are increasing past few days - eg copper and the Turkish lira hourly charts are on top of each other past 4 days. I'm worried there is a 30-40pct(?) chance of a hard risk off move in markets in first half of next week - more focused on European equities, copper, EM FX (Turkey, ZAR, Ruble etc) than SPX. In that scenario oil is way up. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_022272