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d-33129House OversightFinancial Record

Bank of America/Merrill Lynch analyst charts on WFC performance and interest rate outlook

The passage contains internal banking analyst data and performance targets for Wells Fargo, with no direct allegations, financial flow details, or links to high‑profile officials. It offers limited in Charts show perceived catalysts for USB in 2017, including excess capital and interest rates. Wells Fargo's post‑election outlook ties performance to yield‑curve steepening and Fed rate moves. Manage

Date
November 11, 2025
Source
House Oversight
Reference
House Oversight #014346
Pages
1
Persons
0
Integrity
No Hash Available

Summary

The passage contains internal banking analyst data and performance targets for Wells Fargo, with no direct allegations, financial flow details, or links to high‑profile officials. It offers limited in Charts show perceived catalysts for USB in 2017, including excess capital and interest rates. Wells Fargo's post‑election outlook ties performance to yield‑curve steepening and Fed rate moves. Manage

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interest-ratesmarket-outlookanalyst-surveyfinancial-performancebankinghouse-oversightwells-fargo

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Chart 46: What do you consider to be the most important catalyst for USB in 2017? 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 29% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Sustained operating Further acceleration of Using excess capital Rising interest rates and strong currency to engage in non- depository deals leverage, regardless of rate backdrop capital return Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research ele Fargo & Co (WFC), B-1-7, Buy Chart 47: Based on your post-election outlook for 2017, how do you think WFC will perform against this 2 year target? WFC sees modestly better benefit from steepening yield curve vs parallel shift. Following the election, the 10yr yield is up 37bp while futures currently imply a 94% probability the Fed raises rates in Dec. As such, Treasurer Neal Blinde noted that WFC could realize a modestly better benefit to spread income from a steepening yield curve vs. the current +$150mn/qtr expectation from a 25bp parallel shift. He outlined how the bank’s actions to manage an interest rate cycle via balance sheet positioning protect on the downside (i.e. post-Brexit) while at the same time allow for an uptick when rates rise. WFC received numerous investor questions on when they would deploy its dry power ($572bn in liquidity), and management noted that the rate backdrop — not question marks on deposit duration — mostly drove deployment decisions. WFC reiterated its performance targets disclosed at its Investor Day. WFC reiterated its 2-yr performance targets: (1) 1.1-1.4% ROA; (2) 11-14% ROE; (3) 55- 59% efficiency ratio; and (4) 55-75% net capital payout. As of 3Q16, the bank is currently within these ranges on all metrics except for efficiency (3Q: 59.4%). This is consistent with the 61% of the audience polled that expect WFC to perform within the targeted ROE range as headwinds from Retail Banking is offset by an improvement in the macro-economy. That said, 50% of the audience polled believe the issues arising from the retail sales issue will modestly impact earnings (0-5%). practices issue? Chart 48: What do you think is the earnings impact of the retail sales 10% 61% 60% ada 50% 50% an 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% ; 0% 10% Outperform the Perform within the | Underperform the 0% range, given likely range, as lower —_ range, as consensus higher interest rates contribution from the in underestimating Meaningful, at over Modest, between 0- Community Bank 5% of EPS, given lost 5% of EPS earnings will be offset than expected and Community Bank will the earnings impact revenues and higher by the rest of the less headwind from mitigate a stronger from the retail sales operating and firm, resulting in no regulation macro backdrop practices issues. marketing costs impact to EPS power Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research 32 2016 Future of Financials Conference | 17 November 2016 Bankof America 2 Merrill Lynch

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