Generic economic outlook referencing Trump election and market optimism

winning the Premier League (before this season began, British bookmakers listed them as a 5,000- to-1 shot to emerge as the champion), the Cleveland Cavaliers’ first ever National Basketball Association championship and, of course, the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series for the first time since 1908! All unlikely. But they happened. Last but not least, in our own political backyard, we witnessed Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election last month. Also unlikely. We all know markets do not like uncertainty. However, sentiment can shift quickly if fundamentals are not negatively affected, and what was previously determined to be “unlikely” turns to enthusiasm as to what could be. "We expect business, consumer and investor confidence to continue to head higher well into 2017, with most of the newly expected growth to come in 2018, which should underpin equities for most of the year." CHRISTOPHER HY ZY CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, BANK OF AMERICA GLOBAL WEALTH AND INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT Why this expansion can continue Business cycles typically last between five and seven years before fundamentals deteriorate, usually due to a policy error of some sort. This can produce a recession and/or a bear market, which tend to correct the excesses that have been built up and kick-start a new cycle. Bull markets and cycles do not die of old age—there needs to be a fundamental catalyst that emerges and pushes the trends back the other way. We are entering our ninth year in the current business cycle, despite all of the complexities and concerns that have come and gone since the financial crisis.. In fact, this cycle could have extended another few years along the same path, given the secular stagnation that prevailed. This era needed ultra-accommodative central bank monetary policy just to keep things stable and plodding along this far into the cycle. It also needed corporations willing to manage their earnings to the penny in a below trend growth world that offered little pricing power. And finally, this cycle needed U.S. and emerging market consumers to continue to switch from deleveraging to spending as their balance sheets and incomes improved. A return of “animal spirits" This dynamic could have continued for a bit, but monetary policy has become tired. Negative interest rates have become a headwind, not a tailwind, in our view. And, just like sports fans, investors need a catalyst to break from the past. Visible positive catalysts tend to turn into improved sentiment and confidence. Through the years, economists have called this “animal spirits.” Animal spirits begin as hope, turn into enthusiasm, and ultimately need visible action to keep the spirited momentum going. After all, economics is a behavioral science. It is our view that we are breaking from the era of secular stagnation and heading into fiscal reflation. This new era is likely to have its fits and starts and will not be in a straight line. It should also include different stages and speeds from various economic regions globally. Furthermore, it should contain some “unlikely” outcomes. With any cycle, we will have to take the good (higher nominal growth) with the potential HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014527