Statistical Overview of Congressional Party Shifts (2009‑2016) – No Direct Lead

Laffer Associates Game On [Updated 7/6/2016] Table 4 Caucuses Following May 34 ReEpUuD a a O We O a a O 008 G O16 008 U16 Washington Primary 50,764 Primary Primary 230,000 New Mexico N/A N/A N/A 153,299 214,307 North Dakota 9,785 11,349 N/A 19,102 N/A V. Politics Bubbles Up from the Bottom and Presidential Selection is the Final Coup de Grace of a Political Revolution The proposition of this section of this paper is that elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, the U.S. Senate, state houses, state senates and governorships are accurate indicators of Presidential races. If these federal and state elections are accurate forecasters in 2016, Hillary Clinton is toast. a.) Politics in the U.S. Congress In January 2009, there were 57 Democrats in the U.S. Senate, 2 Independents (Sanders VT and King ME) who always voted with and caucused with the Democrats, and 41 Republicans. Today, there are 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats plus the same 2 Independents who are effectively Democrats (see Table 5 below). Likewise, in January 2009, there were 257 Democrats in the U.S. House and 178 Republicans. Today, the tables have turned and the Republicans have their largest majority in the House since 1928, 247, and the Democrats have 188 House members. Not only have the numbers changed dramatically, but the ideologies have also become more concentrated. The changes in the U.S. Congress over the past eight years are huge and reflect an enormous swing in U.S. political sentiments. But the groundswell doesn’t stop there. Table 5 U.S. Senate Count U.S. House Count Democrat Republican Other Democrat Republican Other 1999-2001 45 55 0 211 223 1 2001-2003 50 50 0 213 220 2 2003-2005 48 51 { 205 229 { 2005-2007 44 55 1 201 233 1 2007-2009 49 49 2 233 202 0 2009-2011 57 41 2 257 178 0 2011-2013 51 47 2 193 242 0 2013-2015 53 45 2 201 234 0 2015-2017 44 54 2 188 247 0 Source: 2009-2016 NCSL *numbers for State data are of January for each year Source: Data prior to 2009 census.gov *numbers for state data are of March of each year Figure 5 Figure 6 U.S. Senate Count U.S. House Count (two-year cycles, 1999-2017) (two-year cycles, 1999-2017) 60 260 260 58 == = Republican 250 «== «= Republican 250 Democrat Democrat 56 240 240 \ il 4 230 230 52 220 220 50 210 210 48 AG 200 200 A4 190 190 A2 180 180 40 170 170 _ oO Ke) MN oO ~~ oD Ke) M — oO Ke) NM oO _ oD LO MN 2 i 2 2 2 : z z y 2 2 2 2 2 : z 2 3 So st & bw BS SB HF & So £ 6 b@ 8 @ HF H w > a S S S S > > > > S Y S > y = Source: Senate.gov Source: House.gov 10 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025305