Facebook product rollout and earnings outlook note

Facebook (Buy, $165 PO) Stock view: Becoming the one-stop social shop We expect Facebook to report upside to Street 1Q revenue (but less in absolute dollars than in 4Q) driven by robust demand, Instagram momentum, and solid underlying user growth and engagement. Early ad checks in the quarter indicate steady advertiser trends, with some elements of seasonality off a stronger 4Q, and strength at Instagram. We expect pricing tailwinds to begin to pick up as we approach ad inventory supply moderation in 2H17, and a flurry of new product introductions could provide additional sources of ad load inventory over time. Overall, we see 1Q as an in-line to slightly better quarter, and are optimistic on the set-up for the remainder of the year for pricing, expense management, user engagement, and new platforms/feature ramps. Facebook will be hosting its F8 developer conference before earnings in San Jose on April 18-19. Facebook had another busy quarter of new product launches with a notable trend of Snapchat-like features (Stories, Direct ephemeral messaging) and Video. At this point, we believe the Snap threat is less of a near-term concern. Recent key product/feature releases include: ¢ Stories for all: On the tail of a successful Instagram Stories launch in 8/16, Facebook rolled out WhatsApp Status (2/17), Messenger Day (3/17), and Facebook Stories (3/17). - Direct ephemeral messaging: After introducing ephemeral direct photo/video sharing on Instagram in 11/16, Facebook announced a comparable feature with integrated filters/masks/frames for the core Facebook app in 3/17. ¢ Video App for TV: Announced in February, new app for Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, and Samsung Smart TV to enable FB video viewing on TV. « New ad products: Instagram Stories ads (1/17) a positive tailwind to Instagram ad load, while vertical video ads (Facebook 9/16, Instagram 11/16) and Collections (3/17) are likely positive for pricing. While, in many ways, Facebook is duplicating Snapchat’s innovation, we are encouraged with the rate of new product introductions and view the Facebook Stories and Direct ephemeral messaging (with filters/masks) as positives for user engagement and potential barriers to competitive risk. While management’s focus in the near-term will likely be on new feature adoption, we expect Stories ads within 1-2 quarters and the company is already establishing partnerships for branded masks/filters (see More Stories in the Snap competitive saga). Over time, we would not be surprised to see filter/mask features and ads added to WhatsApp and, possibly, Messenger, which could unlock new monetization potential. On the expense front, we continue to view management’s 2017 expense growth forecast (47-57%) as conservative. History would seem to suggest manage could trim the top of the range on the 2Q earnings call, with more meaningful revisions in 2H17. That said, we won’t be surprised if management maintains the outlook on the April call, particularly given the velocity of new feature launches and potential investments in video content. Bankof America Merrill Lynch Internet/e-Commerce | 06 April2017 = 21 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014907