EFTA01385460

3 January 2018 HY Corporate Credit HY Multi Sector.Media. Cable & Satellite Deciphering the Global Steel Markets Worldwide Steel Production (Supply) The global steel market is structurally oversupplied due to certain steelmaking geographies that manufacture more of the man-made material than demand in those regions warrants. Global crude steel production eclipsed 1.628bn metric tonnes (mt) in 2016. Figure 18 displays steel production by global region. Fig!,NO 18: G€obel Guide Steel Nixitiction (Supply} by Region (000's of metric tonnes) RetininC•Kw Mt = metric tonnes Mtpa = metric tonnes per senora 4333bel 1141 Pentmern 400031 257 ION 2000 2010 2011 512 IVO 2014 7011 2011 %OMNI rain. 4315712 512229 moo irriema 701,101 711.040 922.070 *22.300 407.925 894.346 50% %: Vol 793% 4.6% LW, 707% 99% 41% 1.44% 00% -7.2% 06% Jarmo 1395290 11570 47.534 701,999 107901 107.232 110.59$ 170968 105.134 104.77$ 6% %, YoY 24% .52% .742% 202% .700 27% AM .50% .03% India 51,40 57.711 63.527 ant 73.471 77.264 41269 0,02 45,477 0% 1(020 I" , .1 YoY 477. 45% FE% te.41,. 85% 52% 5." 745 7.2% 13014 Kona 51.517 52.6E 44572 56,914 NM* 0.073 WM 71,54) 0.470 64.576 4% %: 15,Y 04: 4.7% .74% 212% 10" 92% 74" dr: 4 0% .7.4% Olnin Asia 45445 45506 3510 42,216 430/7 42.192 4303 47,416 45216 47,510 3% '4.1 YoY 2119: .42% • 15 5% A, 1% 4.0% 1E, 7e% 45: .467'7 57% ASIA 754.2es 784,090 411.86,6 90450 90456 5026501 1,122,641 1,139,223 1,11201 69% 46 A VoY HUN 3.4% 15% 13.1% IA% 27% 04% 7.4% .24% 1.1% 5111014MI UNION 214242 110.705 114,05 172411 177,700 144567 1057 10100 15116 11054 10% %.1 MY 240% -5.5% -ten 24.0% 2.11% 4.2% 43% 1.2% -1.9% -23% United Sees 9(101 93.89% 5(754 40495 0021 MOS 94.478 45174 78.443 79473 3% %', VDT -0 75, 63% .354% 36.51, 73% 27% .1.9-, I51, 406% .05% Other North Awrica 34517 23243 24.26* 71,007 72.277 32.491 22.107 32919 32,093 32.149 2% %: Tor 34°. .77% 446% 27.4'7 19% 79% 24% 45% 02% NORTH 4144140 132.101 15,111 41772 111412 111015 121411$ 15175 121,003 110.1131 110.124 7% %A YoY 48% 4.6% 422% 332% 1.4% 25% .2.1% III% .64% 4.7% 110514 3707 0510 5011 0442 14.102 70,209 71,441 70.15 7051 4% MAW -77% %1 Yo Y 22% .3.3% -724% 17.5% 23% 2.0% 76% .0" 41% 08(w flual 51.782 450E 3).40 41255 41511 44521 NAM 34.418 0454 3100 2% % : Ye Y 20% • 0," 95% ii" .34% .17 7% .7. I`. OS 124,140 114415 97.01 10120 112.0/2 110.70 1011.409 104079 10152 102.410 9% %A VoV 47% -Ma Me% 47% 4." 47% 41% al% AS% OTHER EUROPE 30533 31521 29014 33,651 3900 39,918 34627 25,374 35,777 37,651 2% %.7 YoY '*5% 34% 12% 15.9% ft /1. 27% 2" .07% .65 5.2% SOUTH AMERICA 4835 47,400 Tan 41,151 48,1111 44379 41:1,02 4(043 43.100 40319 2% %A YoY 14% 44% .215% 02% 47% .27% 12% .23% 414% /ADDLE EAST 1(452 16.60 17.70 20.000 73370 24479 2157 29.196 29429 31,481 2% %5 YoY 72 00 /.2% 67% 114% 762% 7.5% 1.0% 17.2% .19% 7.0% AIWA 1105 1650 1%400 11.625 15.016 15.326 1540 WM 11701 MON 1% %A YoY 12% at% 03% 10% 4.6% .22% 4.7% .6.9% .5% .44% OCEANIA 1711 0,424 4014 1,10 7240 5105 5.501 5.40 5.711 5,11311 0% % ., Yov 49% .41% a" 35.5% .17.1% As 9% -17% .22% 4.6% 2.1% 131401 SYS ProftetIon11044011 1lµ16 140,01 1234753 14314111 1434002 1440.15 1,00.447 1420401 14000 IN% 1.050.3511 SS% %.1 MY 729% as% .7.11% 757% 7.7% 54% 72% 40% 0.0% SO,. DARYA* gra, Blecordirg Anna.* 4P HA* Viet MAW Anteater, China's 808mn mtpa of steel production made up 50% of global supply in 2016. China has doubled domestic steel capacity over the past 15 years as it seeks to industrialize its economy. The top five steelmaking nations globally amassed 71% of production in 2016; absent China, this figure falls considerably to 21%. Figure 19' The Top Frye Steve€oinking Count! ies 1A 1oticiwicle in 2016 (®0' s of metric tonnes) 0470•101,410004574 (OWN 2040 net 205 low 2011 5112 203 2014 2019 tete %Glad II am. 440.712 517.371 577470 04743 701,9611 7/1,040 522.00 01301 531E Nene 50% %A Top 50.3% 441 7265 70.7% 99% 4.1% 12.4% 0.0% 22% 06% 21 Japan 120203 111729 47,531 10909 107031 107272 110.590 110,644 10,111 10775 6% %1 %AY 2.4% 4.2% .262% 272% .15 -02% "I% 0.7% 4.0% -03% 3) Imes 52.466 57,01 63527 65,975 73.471 77261 87,299 87,292 mon 95,477 6% %.t YoY RI% 27% 9.9% 94% 45% 52% 52% 7.4% 2.0% 7.2% II United Slabs 99.101 6106 59.01 00495 Mal OAS SIAM 10.174 71,45 0,4E 5% % s YoY .0.1% 4.3% 35.4% 35.5% 73% 2.7% -20% 7.5% -05% 5) aria n267 60,510 60.011 66.942 68952 70.20 133.005 71.461 7045/3 70.906 4% NI 1.9Y 11" A/ 5% 19% 22 3.2 -07% Top 043111444makhn Nollono ilia)i wpb SOS 1164.15 143050 1,04 1.1110,41 1.10 1.147A 1.15001 71% % A YoY 10.3% 7.9% .02% 7200 7.4% 35% RN 0,3% 27% 0.9% 67401 411 thothween Cthaoshi ON.* iiAISAti th iSlitt LUSA* OSA* 7.00(40 ISSAS ISM> intv)tri attOai 110% %a licY Ste% 42% .72% oaf% 72% 74% (0 % 12% 4.0% AI% Sane Oanc. am* Soren 07nonort.P. m. net Srew Assocen Page 186 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0086745 SDNY_GM_00232929 EFTA01385460