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efta-01389025DOJ Data Set 10OtherEFTA01389025
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Deutsche Bank
Markets Research
Rating
Buy
North America
United States
Financial
REITs
Corn pig ly
Digital Realty Trust
DLR.N
DLR US
ENaiengo
NYS
DLR
Nice rebound in bookings; no change
in positive data center thesis
the filosi inteiesting thing about Dt.i1 s 31) tenor C. .
...may be the stock's reaction to what we thought was a nice rebound in
bookings from a disappointing 2Q. We think the activity is notable given the
lack of a head of sales in the Q and the breadth of leasing, including good
activity in London post-Brexit. Sentiment on the group has gone negative on
concerns that hyperscale cloud demand has slowed with Data Center REITs
down 8% since QTS kicked off earnings 2 days ago despite the fact that only 1
of 4 DC's that have reported saw a q/q decline in bookings, while low
penetration rates support elevated growth for years to come. We would add to
positions on the sell-off. Reiterate Buy
Brx)longs rebound in 3o.
DLR
signed $55MM of annualized
bookings,
including S9MM of
interconnection bookings, which was a nice rebound from 2Q's $23MM level
and highlights the lumpy nature of leasing. The average volume in 2Q and 3O
of $39MM was roughly in-line with TTM averages. DLR's backlog rose to
$84MM from $70MM last Q. Pricing commentary suggested a stable
environment with overall cash spreads in the O up 2.5% though TKF spreads
fell 9% as a heavily flagged above-market lease rolled over in the Q. Cash rent
spread guidance was unchanged at "slightly positive." US TKF pricing fell to
$140/sf (S120/KW) vs $202/sf ($187/KW) last Q, with the decline attributed to
geographic mix. US cob pricing was $304/sf and $295/KW versus $229/sf and
$260/KW last Q. Cash SC NOI was up only 0.9% (+2.1% ex FX) vs. 3.3% last Q,
although guidance implies acceleration in 4Q.
1;2177502e% 1,h111,,,
0
We have updated our model to reflect 3O results, updated guidance, and our
revised outlook. Our 2016 core FFO/sh estimate moves to $5.72 from $5.73,
while NAREIT FFO/sh moves to $5.48 from $5.53, and FAD/sh moves to $5.22
from $5.09. In 2017, our core FFO/sh and NAREIT FFO/sh estimates are
unchanged at $6.09, while FAD/sh moves to 55.23 from $5.21. Our core FFO
estimates are largely unchanged, while FAD increases in 2016 due to lowered
capex expectations.
Valuation 41r1d risk:: (see pada 7 for tierailO
We are maintaining our TP at $108. Our TP is based on a 50:50 blend of our
FAD-based target and our EBITDA-based target. Risks include near-term
leasing, its ability to source attractive external growth opportunities, and
customer concentration which exposes it to higher than avg bankruptcy risk.
f .,: ,x... ': i.. ,, ..... ....
Year Erwi Dec 31
2015A
2016E
2017E
10 FFO
1.56
1.39A
-
20 FF0
1.28
1.36A
-
30 FFO
1.28
1.31A
-
40 FFO
0.79
1.41
-
FY FFO (USD)
4.86
5.48
6.09
P/FF0 04
14.0
16.8
15.1
Dividend yield (%)
6.0
3.8
4A
Sauce Ciercrelionaelne,cerAtaftres•
28 October 2016
Results
Price at 27 Oct 2016 µ1SD)
92.07
Price Target
100.00
112.10 - 69.96
62-week range
Ono, CFA
Mike
Cr-A
Research
Research Associate
Re; changas
FF0 NSW
5.53 to 5.48
SOWN Dortsche•cre
-Off*
Nicatcrithe relative
120
$0
75
Co
45
35
ton3
Lilt
1014
405
Ions
sno
---DrallednyTWO
MP,0304000tebitOdt
Performance 1%)
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
-5O
-12.7
26.2
S&P 500 INDEX
-1.5
3.3
Scarce Ocuraineene
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Distributed on: 28/10/2016 06:50:47 GMT
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should
consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST
CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 057/04/2016.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e)
CONFIDENTIAL
DB-SDNY-0093170
SDNY_GM_00239354
EFTA01389025
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