EFTA02154572

From: Sent: Tue 11/20/2012 11:06:06 AM Subject: Early Tour 11.20.12 Good Morning ... Europe mixed (DAX +0.20%, Italy -0.52%) ... ASX +0.56%, NKY -0.12%, KOSPI +0.64%, SHCOMP -0.40%, 1151 -0.16% EUR 1.2810 (-0.02%) JPY 81.27 (+0.18%) NZD 0.8175 (-0.31%) Spain 10yr 5.875% Italy 10yr 4.89% US 10yr 1.63% Futures: Dow +6, Nasdaq +4, S&P +1 DXY $80.85 (-3c) Crude $89.03 (-25c) Gold $1733.80 (- 80c) Copper -0.18% For the most part, Asia held the recent momentum today on lighter volumes. The BOJ made no changes to its asset purchase program and left rates unchanged as expected (nevertheless the JPY did strengthen a bit and the NKY225 drifted lower after briefly trading above 9,200 around the open). The next BOJ meeting will be very closely watched as it falls after elections on Dec 19- 20. China's SHCOMP lagged the region and closed near the lows of the session after FDI fell for the 11th time in 12 months (-0.2% vs est +1.0%). Meanwhile, Moody's strips France of its Aaa rating with a one notch cut to Aal citing an uncertain fiscal outlook, deteriorating economy in the short-term, and longer-term structural rigidities — outlook remains negative. This was generally expected as Moody's is now inline with S&P who downgraded France back in January = minimal impact in the market today thus far. Focus today on the Eurogroup & IMF meeting to discuss Greece's debt sustainability and releasing the next tranche of aid (4pm GMT). Reuters has reported they are likely to reach a "political endorsement in principal" to release the tranche of aid conditional on Greece completing a set of "prior actions" that will be checked off next week with a final decision coming the first week in Dec. Xstrata shareholders vote today @ 2pm GMT on the Glencore deal & management incentive arrangements (spread pricing in —90%+ chance deal is approved although the retention payments may be voted down in a separate vote). Spain sells 64.94 billion in 12-18 month bills vs max target E4.5 billion. AAPL bid up another $2 pre-open after yesterday's +$38 move. SPA's holding yesterday's ground flat = 1382.80 last. ***BBY, CPB, HNZ, HPQ, HRL, MDT #'s pre-open I CRM after close*** "*Bemanke speaks at Economic Club in New York @ 12:15pm*** "'Housing Starts © 8:30am, China Leading Economic Index tonight*** EFTA_R1_00820651 EFTA02154572 • Urban Outfitters net up on record sales/margin growth but eps missed ests (trading -1.5%) • JPM appoints Marianne Lake CFO for early next year (Braunstein named vice chairman) • Bob Evans profit off 19% below expectations - exploring strategic alternatives (trading -1.7%) • Agilent Q4 net income rose on acquisition tax benefit but issued weak guidance (trading -1.5%) • Krispy Kreme core profit & revs beat & raised FY outlook as SSS strengthened (trading +12%) • Jack in the Box eps missed as revs down & logged expenses from outsourcing distribution (trading - 4%) • Brocade O4 eps/rev results topped (ceo said "product portfolio strongest ever been") (trading -2%) • Nuance swung to profit on sales growth in health-care biz but revs fell short of ests (trading -4%) • Credit Suisse restructures IB into 2 units: combines asset management & private bank (trading - 2.5%) • EADS: Handlesbaltt spec French/German deal to each have 12% stake, Spain maintaining 5.5% (trading -0.50%) • EasyJet good FY, management +ve outlook, sees continuing strong trends, good div increase (trading +6.7%) • Statoil announces 10yr gas sales agreement with Wintershall to supply Germany & NW Europe (trading -1.0%) • BSkyB announces private 10yr bond placement of $796.53M, rumor to return cash to Newscorp (trading -0.50%) • Enterprise Inns inline FY, few surprises, reit disposal targets, vague outlook, no div as expected (trading unch) • Schaeffler (roller-bearings) (private) light O3, trimming FY sales outlook, maintains EBIT forecasts • X5 Retail Group Q3 mixed, net below, sales inline, EBITDA slightly light, fx headwinds (trading - 0.60%) • British Land H1 inline, NAV a penny better, cautious tone on outlook, guidance maintained (trading +1.5%) • Swiss October watch exports +9.3% y/y in real terms (+13.2% y/y in nominal terms) (CFR +1.5%, UHR +1.2%) • Carrefour sells 60% stake of Carrefour Indonesia to CT Corp for E525 million (trading +1.9%) • JC Decaux wins the renewal of its exclusive advertising contracts for Hong Kong MTR (trading +0.80%) • Morgan Stanley cutting its 2013 Eurozone GDP forecast to -0.5% from 0.0% prior • Germany Oct producer prices +0.0% m/m versus estimate +0.1% (+1.5% y/y versus estimate EFTA_R1_00820652 EFTA02154573 +1.6%) • Belgium government reaches deal on 2013 budget (likely contains - E3.7B in austerity measures) • Panasonic rating cut to Baa3 by Moody's (outlook negative) (challenging market conditions) • Muddy Waters latest target, Olam International, was halted for most of the day in Singapore • Taiwan October exports came in stronger than expected (+3.2% y/y versus estimate +0.2%) • RBA minutes from November meeting suggest that further rate cuts may be needed ahead Leading European Sectors: Trav/Les +1.35%, Chemicals +0.57%, Tech +0.53% Lagging European Sectors: Banks -0.72%, Utilities -0.53%, Healthcare -0.31% SD stockholder rights plan — QIHU sees revs above — RGR special $4.5/shr div FRED one-time 19c dividend — RRBG $50M stock buyback — SWHC guides up GYRO $38.30 special cash div — CRMT earnings light — CCC $100M buyback Secondaries (announced/priced): SCON, ARP, PRI, CJES, MMLP IPO's (filed/priced): Alon USA (ALDW) 10M units priced at $16 (below range), Hudson Bay (HBC CN) 21.5M shares priced at C$17 Key Research: Barcap initiates MPLX (ew) & upgrades EXPE, GS upgrades PENN/AKS and WFM/A (buy's) & cuts CLF Key Research: Dahlman Rose initiates GEOS (buy) and GGS/IO (hold), Jeff upgrades AXURIMMNNTV Key Research: Opco initiates MDCO (op) & downgrades EMR, Baird upgrades PNR/VVHZ, UBS downgrades INTC Key Research: Stifel initiates ISRG/BDX/ZMH/COV/JNJ/BCR/STJ/BAX (hold's) and SYK/CFN/BSX/EW (buy's) Key Research: MS initiates MPLX (ow), JPM adds NCR to focus list, Wedbush initiates DECK (op) Key Research: Multiple brokers initiate RLGY, Macquarie upgrades DGX, Raja upgrades PEBO, BMO upgrades ADM Key Research: Janney initiates MM (buy), Capstone initiates CBK (buy), Wells initiates COH (op) & downgrades GEF EFTA_R1_00820653 EFTA02154574 Key Research: CS initiates MDCO/COLB/EWBC/SUSQ/FRC/SBNY (op's) and UMPQ (up) and WBS/HBHC/TCBI/BKU/ASBC (neut's) Key Research: CS upgrade SUBC NO, RBC upgrade IAG LN, Platou upgrade SUBC NO, Cheuvreux cuts #'s HMB SS Key Research: Nordea upgrade CNTA SS, Swedbank upgrade EKTAB SS, Panmure initiate RKH LN (buy) Key Research: GS adds SDL LN to conviction buy, ABN cuts GLPG BB, SEB upgrade AAK SS, MS initiate NAUR NO (ow) Key Research: Natixis downgrade FUR NA, Natixis initiate RCL NO (buy), Barc upgrade IHG LN, UBS downgrade EXO IM Key Research: Kepler upgrade GLE FP, Seymour downgrade DEB LN, SocGen upgrade INGA NA, UBS downgrade F IM Reporting Pre-Open: BBY, CPB, HNZ, HPO, HRL, MDT, PDCO, AMWD, BES, CGA, CHS, CRRC, CTRN, DAKT, DLIA, DSW, DSX, FRED, IEC, IMOS, JKAS, KIRK, LEDS, NM, NRGY, RAVN, SCHS, SIG, TAOM, TECD, TSL, UGNE, VAL Reporting Post-Close: CRM, BAMM, CERE, NED, PLNR, QADB, SQM, STV, TLYS, ZLC Economic Data: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales 0 7:45arn/8:55am, Housing Starts & Building Permits @ 8:30am API crude oil inventories 4:30pm Fed Speakers: Lacker 9am (NYC), Bemanke 12:15pm (NYC) Conferences: No major conferences. Analyst/Investor Days: N/A Non-Deal Roadshows: AKAM, AMAT, APP, BRKL, BZ, CA, DENN, EXAS, FMER, HZNP, MTW, NICE, PDS, PNC, PRAA, SIRO, STN, TUMI, VIPS, VOD, WFR, XLS EFTA_R1_00820854 EFTA02154575 Shareholder Meetings: ORIT, MAYS, NAVR, DY, ELX, YMI, HTHT Equity/Mixed Shelfs: CMA Other Newspaper Articles & Stories WSJ cautious: Billabong (BBG AU) WSJ • Toys 'R' Us Grows in China, With 'Tiger Moms' in Mind WSJ • Spain's Chinese Feel Backlash From Tax Case WSJ • Cameron Faces Dissent Over EU Budget WSJ • Greece Pushes Through Last-Minute Changes WSJ • Billabong Executive Considers Buyout Bid WSJ • Vote Divides French Opposition WSJ • William Conway: Why We're Investing in America WSJ Opinion • For 'Credit Invisibles; A Market Takes Shape WSJ • Early Dividend for Wal-Mart Is Latest Move in Tax Tactics NYT • Solar Companies Seek Ways to Build an Oasis of Electricity NYT • Ottawa pushes CNOOC on Nexen vows Globe and Mail • Moody's downgrades France from triple A FT • Bundesbank warms to banking union FT • Bank union proposals put curbs on ECB FT • Greece edges closer to €44bn bailout FT • US listings hit by fiscal cliff fears FT • Eurozone securitisation reaches crisis low FT • Infrastructure — building blockages FT EFTA_R1_00820655 EFTA02154576 • HSBC — Chinese choices Lex • Europe would lose if Britain left the union FT • Catalonia's future is for all Spain to decide FT • Eurogroup seeks deal with IMF over Greece The Times • Eurozone leaders remain split over Greek debt Telegraph • The fiscal cliff-saving tax consensus rules everywhere but on Capitol Hill Guardian • Even going nuclear will not deter banks from ring-fence gaming Independent Key Events This Week Wednesday: US & China Flash PMI, U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence, Leading Indicators, Earnings (DE) Thursday: Thanksgiving (US Markets Closed), Eurozone Flash PMI, European Leaders Summit (budget negotiations) (Nov 22-23) Friday: US equity markets close at 1 pm, US bond markets close at 2pm, Black Friday for US retailers Sunday: Catalonia regional elections in Spain Key Events on the Horizon November 28 — EU FinMin teleconference (tentative) November 30 — MSCI semi-annual index rebalance December 6 — ECB & BOE rate decisions EFTA_R1_00820656 EFTA02154577 December 12 — FOMC rate decision December 22-January 20 - US Congress scheduled to adjourn January 30 — Launch date for RIM's Blackberry 10 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it Is addressed. 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