From: Paul Barrett

From: Paul Barrett To: Jeffrey E. <jeevacation@gmail.com> Subject: FW: Why you should invest in Saudi Arabia Date: Mon, 09 Apr 2018 18:04:02 +0000 Attachments: 2018.03.29 _ - _ Saudi _ EM _inclusion.pdf Inline-Images: image002.jpg Hi Jeffrey Any thoughts on the Saudi stock market? They are making a big deal of the MSCI inclusion. I personally don't like the long term outlook given where the world is headed with electric vehicles and more efficient energy consumption. Paul Barrett Alpha Group Capital LLC 142 W 57th Street, 11th Floor, New York, NY 10019 From: Martin Zeman Sent: Monday, April 09, 2018 12:33 PM To: Paul Barrett Cc: Stewart Oldfield Subject: Why you should invest in Saudi Arabia ; Xavier Avila < > Paul, Further to our call on Saudi stocks: See attached a 2-pager on the recent announcement from our research: • Saudi Arabia included in FTSE Secondary EM Index to happen in 5 stages, from March-19 to Dec-19 • This could translate to inflows of $4.5bn into their equity market • We estimate Sabic to get $727M, Al Rajhi $504M, National Commercial Bank $385M (see table in the attached pdf) • MSCI EM decision announced in June 2018 • If they get in -> $39bn inflows and the actual inclusion would happen in June 2019 • These flows are already happening now: $619M inflows in Jan-18 (highest on record); $364M in Feb-18 Read this article on Bloomberg about what happens to the stock market once the actual inclusion happens. History shows that the biggest appreciation happens in the run-up to these inclusions so we have about 12-18 months. https://www.bloomberg.cominews/articles/203.8-04-03./saudi-arabian-emerging-market-status-comes-with-sobering- history And I think this one is an interesting read: http://time.com/longform/mohammed-bin-salman/ DB facilitates two ways to invest: 1/ Via Participatory Notes — fully funded EFTA00839042 2/ Equity Swaps — 2x leverage, ISDA needed. 3/ We charge 50bps for trading, the funding on the equity swap is Libor + 150bps This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidden. Please refer to https://db.com/disclosures for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contained in this communication should not be regarded as such. EFTA00839043