DS9 Document EFTA01173321

From: To: Subject: Date: Attachments: Inline-Images: US GIG Undisclosed recipients:; JPMorgan View 01.27.2012 Fri, 27 Jan 2012 23:26:26 +0000 JPM_View_01.27.2012-pdizip intage0O3.png J.P. Morgan The J.P. Morgan View The rally is getting fundamental support • Aviel Allocation— Start switch from the to into EM • Economies — Suave P%Us create upside task an global glossa SW ruse 91 tone in the EuroArea. and 2012 front 0.3% o.0 4%.mth upside risk • Fixed Income —wk stay tactically prune on at prophesy • Equities — 11k teconimend a basket of high and sustainable thadend yield arks. the l.P. Morgan European Eustamabk Held Basket with an rimer Deld of 4 7% • Credit — CS H1' reMain3 our prefened trait. stay long • Foreign exchange — ilk mace defensive trade again and add another LISD short • Conutiorleles —Close long bend vs base metals wade. Ream long gold • %%Mk fOur and the rally m ask assets continues. earn as US equities are beaded for tau first tri weekly down of dr year Last week we saw that the rams wench had staled in equities. was pupate along mat. ronunodaties and EM CUrrenCitS This mown the case this week. and now ha-, widened further to the eumproptra But we are also grning fundamental support. with unproved economic data and central banks :mann even fur her easing ilk are flan truss challenged by overvaluance and baba pantos and thus feel condonable :Maing a ugnsficant long in ruk assets. Phlls remain our best forma looking indicators of economic runty. despite tad subpar performance as a global signal last )eat And it is the flash PhIls for Chula and Europe that am now indicating upside task on global forecasts for 91 In theism are. this has forced us already to Onus EI I from I Tr% to Bar winch fair: the 2012 popectal Isom -0 3% to 4% Mt eau next week's surreys on credit mothball to assess whether the moon imam: in a shallow recession. or is poi homong woad stagnation Equally Ulicertant are Signs dim central banks are pang themsehes men more into a stimulus stance The FOMC stated this week that it does not expect to rase rates fa another flute years. almost 3 year later than the moat had expected. And Clam= Bernina made it clear that it would non take much for the FOMC to start rah" nand of QE In Eunice. arse is !somas confidence that the Dernatet 3+year loon from the ECB is ka0ing banks to use al least sane of that to buy sovereign fete wk expect banks to take up 0330 4000n at me try L I RO re Feb N. of Much E230-300ba would be new money In EM. the Resent Bank of Iota gave us a striate 0 X% chop in seam requirements This may non signal a big change. but we do expect rate ruts from Q2 on as inflation is falling Overall. both DM and EM central banks have become more growth supportive o er the past month. • The strong and widening rally us nit assets may give the unpresuon that the unmeant Cannansity LS humans bullish about the weld ibbAner. weak trading volumes. sunrys. united tar and client canversanons meal Ta cemfyinp analyst is Indicated by ao "c. See page 7 for anal>, catacance and amponant legal and reguaory dialogs Slobs, asset Allocelion J P Morgan Close Sara NA. 4 P Morgan Occurnud lea Jan 27.2012 Jan Looys' SOL 'rtzoglou - rain Matthew Lehmann n0 returns through an 2e % tome auntie, aloe IGO or IAD treader 1/306seiso SILPSoa Tow EM FI Weep ass c£Min PAM* EM Loot Barer BOX 11611.0itre Le Fred krone Gail Goo BON' Erne ReethroW Ware O I obleak Roe" Gamma t▪ her ••••••..mip0 be Panes • 0.000001 Was .403m' DIP0 $010/14a0 Pilala nioare•s www.morganmarkets.com This email is confidential and subject to important disclaimers and conditions including on offers for the purchase or sale of securities, accuracy and completeness of information, viruses, confidentiality, legal privilege, and legal entity disclaimers, available at Imp://vAvw.jpmorgan.com/pagesidisclosures/entail. EFTA01173321