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efta-efta01385138DOJ Data Set 10CorrespondenceEFTA Document EFTA01385138
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1 October 2017
Autos & Auto Parts
General Motors Co
Valuation and Risks
Our DCF-derived target price is $51/share. Our estimate assumes $41/share for
GM's 1.0 operation, implying a 10% FCF yield on our -.$6.0 bn trend FCF forecast
and translating to 4.0x 2018 EV/EBITDAP. We've also incorporated $10/share to
GM's Autonomous 2. 0 opportunity, which is roughly 50% of the 420/sh value
noted above. We think a haircut is appropriate as the Autonomous business is
new and involves significant risks.
Key risks, in our view, are likely to be concentrated around GM's 1. 0 operations,
especially in the near-term, as the company scales back production in NA to right-
size inventory and to prepare of upcoming 2018/2019 launches of key products
(namely its large pickups and SUVs).
Page 4
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
DB-SDNY-0086200
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00232384
EFTA01385138
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