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efta-efta01385296DOJ Data Set 10CorrespondenceEFTA Document EFTA01385296
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3 January 2018
HY Corporate Credit
HY Multi Sector,Media, Cable & Satellite
Relative Index Performance
Year-to-date the DB HY Chemicals Index and the DB HY Index returned
10.07% and 7.09%, respectively. That follows modest underperformance by
the DB HY Chemicals Index in 2014 and 2015 and strong outperformance in
2016. Current YTW for the Chemicals Index is 5.36% versus 5.75% for the
broad HY Index. The current -39 bps differential is 70 bps tight to the average
over the past five years and 22 bps tight to the average of the past ten years.
Over the past ten years, the differential has generally fallen within -100-+104)
bps. The differential has tightened since reaching its widest point two years
ago when the Chemicals sector repriced when Olin priced its new issuance.
This tightening has been led by the outperformance by names including CF
Industries, Chemours, Hexion, TPC Group and Tronox (See Figure 18:
Chemicals Relative Value - Returns), as the overall market entered a risk-on
period. As seen in Figures 2 & 3, the Chemicals sector has tended to correlate
closely with movements in the broader Index.
'Figure 1: Index Returns
2013
2014
2015
2016
YTD
DB HY Chemicals Index
9.01%
125%
-5.64%
2283%
10.07%
DB HY Index
720%
2.52%
4.83%
1657%
7.09%
DB HY BB Index
4.84%
5.37%
-1.49%
11.96%
7.34%
DB HY B Index
7.94%
1.12%
-5.64%
15.94%
5.84%
DB HY CCC Index
13.26%
-2.45%
•13.79%
28.61%
9.50%
DowJones Industrial Index
26.50%
7.52%
-2.23%
13.42%
24.74%
SW 500 Index
29.60%
11 39%
-0.73%
9.51%
19.52%
Source Deuteeho Sint eltemborp hen* LP
1*•• &more
•FPIPOINPral
/OF
itrinteMQ
figure 2: YTW HY Chemicals vs HY Index (Last 10 Years)
'Figure 3: YTW HY Chemicals vs, HY Index (Last 5 Years)
20.00% I
111.00%
16.00%
14.00%
12.00%
10.00% .-
400%
6.00% •
4.00%
/
/ / / / / / /
—HY Index
14Y Chernc4la Index
E12.00%
••,
4
•
%
%
AS
Scam Detfechegent
Source Orasthe Sw*
—HY Index
----HY themcals Index
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Page 21
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
DB-SDNY-0086580
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00232764
EFTA01385296
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