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EFTA Document EFTA01385366Case File
efta-efta01385366DOJ Data Set 10CorrespondenceEFTA Document EFTA01385366
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3 January 2018
HY Corporate Credit
HY Multi Sector,Media, Cable & Satellite
$93 million, distributions to the tribe of $60 million, investments in affiliates of
$4 million, and no proceeds from affiliates, we project free cash flow of $24
million in 2018. Using our projected total debt of $1.57 billion and cash interest
of $93 million, we estimate Mohegan will end the year with leverage of 4.2x
and coverage of 4.0x. Factoring non restricted cash of $89 million, we estimate
net leverage at 4.0x.
For FY'19, we are projecting Mohegan will generate Adjusted EBITDA of $290
million (-22.5% versus $375 million) on revenues of $1.20 billion (-13.5%
versus $1.39 billion). Factoring capital expenditures of $105 million, cash
interest of $88 million, distributions to the tribe of $60 million, investments in
affiliates of $4 million, and proceeds from affiliates of $89 million, we project
free cash flow of $122 million in 2019. Using our projected total debt of $1.40
billion and cash interest of $88 million, we estimate Mohegan will end the year
with leverage of 4.8x and coverage of 3.3x. Factoring cash of $88 million, we
estimate net leverage at 4.5x.
For FY'20, we are projecting Mohegan will generate Adjusted EBITDA of $235
million (-19.0% versus $290 million) on revenues of $1.08 billion (-10.0%
versus $1.20 billion). Factoring capital expenditures of $45 million, cash
interest of $85 million, distributions to the tribe of $50 million, investments in
affiliates of $4 million, and no proceeds from affiliates, we project free cash
flow of $51 million in 2020. Using our projected total debt of $1.35 billion and
cash interest of $85 million, we estimate Mohegan will end the year with
leverage of 5.7x and coverage of 2.8x. Factoring consolidated cash of $88
million, we estimate net leverage at 5.3x.
E hibit
Mohegan Tribal Gaming (S Millions)
2016(A)
2017(N)
2018(E)
2019(E)
2020(E)
Adjusted Ell/TDA
$343
$349
$375
$290
3235
Less:Capital Expenditures
$54
$100
$194
$105
$45
Less: Cash interest
133
94
93
88
85
Less: Distributions to the Tribe
53
60
60
60
50
Less: Investments in affiliates
8
4
4
4
4
Plus: Proceeds from affiliates
14
0
0
89
0
Free Ca* Flow
$110
$R
$24
$122
$51
Total Debt
31,710
$1.692
$1,574
$1.397
$1,345
Total Cash
290
237
143
88
88
Swage
5.0x
4.8x
4.2x
4.8x
5.7x
Net Leverage•
&7x
4.0x
4.0x
4.5x
5.3x
Coverage
2.8x
3.7x
4.0x
3.3x
28x
•Estkoasts restnar; aull &teal Canyon, Faro end f
Sink
Risk to our call includes a deterioration of gaming fundamentals and higher-
than-expected cannibalization from the expansion of gaming at Massachusetts.
Penn National Gaming
Adjusting for cash settled stock costs and one-time
acquisition expenses; Penn National was able to report a modest EBITDA beat
(-$1 million) against our expectations owing to higher than expected revenues,
partially offset by slightly lower-than-expected margins. While results were
strong and management commentary regarding current trends was positive,
we believe investor focus was on the announcement of several initiatives to
increase profitability. While management provided limited color on specific
measures, we do believe that the targets of the plan are achievable, especially
if the company is able to drive incremental revenue of 2-3%.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Page 91
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
DB-SDNY-0086650
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00232834
EFTA01385366
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