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EFTA Document EFTA01385368Case File
efta-efta01385368DOJ Data Set 10CorrespondenceEFTA Document EFTA01385368
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3 January 2018
HY Corporate Credit
HY Multi Sector.Media. Cable & Satellite
the Palms. While we believe that the investment at the Palms could generate
an attractive ROI, we believe that the ramp of the property will be slow and the
overall investment quite high.
With this report, we are reaffirming our buy rating on Red Rock Resorts 5.0%
Senior Unsecured Notes 2025 ($100.2, 5.0%YlVV, 279bps STW) with a Buy
rating given our belief that these bonds offer investors an attractive total return
opportunity compared to the DB HY Gaming Index, which is currently trading
at 4.6%.
For 2017, we estimate Red Rock will report adjusted EBITDA of $505 million
(+4.5% versus $484 million) on revenue of $1.64 billion (+12.5% versus $1.45
billion). After factoring the impact of $270 million of capital expenditures,
$120 million in land acquisition, $121 million of cash interest, $9 million of
cash taxes, $45 million in distributions, $27 million in dividends and $5 million
in other cash flow items, we project Red Rock total cash burn of $85 million in
2018. Using our projection of $2.69 billion of debt and a 8104 million cash
balance, we estimate Red Rock will end 2017 with total leverage of 5.3x and a
net leverage of 5.1x.
For 2018, we estimate Red Rock will report adjusted EBITDA of $525 million
(+4.0% versus $505 million) on revenue of $1.66 billion (+1.5% versus $1.64
billion). After factoring the impact of $560 million of capital expenditures,
$108 million of cash interest, $65 million of cash taxes, $45 million in
distributions and $27 million in dividends, we project total cash burn to be
$280 million. Using our projection of $2.97 billion of debt and a $104 million
cash balance, we estimate Red Rock will end 2018 with total leverage of 5.6x
and a net leverage of 5.5x.
Exhibit 7: Red Rock Resorts (S Millions)
2016 (A)
2018 (A/
LTM
2017(E)
2018 181
Camdkilted EBITDA
$461
$484
$489
$605
$525
Less: Capital Expenditures
$130
$162
$211
$270
$560
Less: NA development costs
2
3
3
3
0
Less: Acquisitions
0
306
329
120
0
Less: Cash interest
122
116
118
121
108
Less:Cash taxes
0
10
5
9
65
LOSS: Distilbutions
222
126
43
45
45
Less: Dividends
0
11
27
27
27
Plus: Distributions Irom JV
3
2
2
3
0
Plus: Asset sales
26
11
4
2
0
Fns Cash Flaw
$4
l$235)
182311
1$851
11281:4
Total Debt
$2.100
$2,367
$2.687
$2.687
$2,967
Cash
116
134
222
104
104
Levenme
4.76
428
5Ax
5.38
5.0X
91441.Avan94
44x
4.6x
4.9x
5.1x
5.59
Cowie,
1.7x
42x
4.2x
4.2x
4.9x
SCarre CCeNtWV ASealt WV attune Sn
Downside risks include deterioration in Las Vegas Locals market, which may
lead to free cash flow coming in below our expectations.
Wynn Resorts Post a modest EBITDA beat our investment thesis remains
unchanged, as we continue to expect Wynn to be the biggest beneficiary of
the second phase of the VIP recovery in Macau.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Page 93
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
DB-SDNY-0086652
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00232836
EFTA01385368
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