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efta-efta01457976DOJ Data Set 10CorrespondenceEFTA Document EFTA01457976
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Asia: Chinese equities
In China, margin trading for the Shanghai
and Shenzhen Composites has fallen to
around RMB1.4tn vs. RMB2.1tn at its peak
as leverage continues to be flushed out of
the system. At the same time we
understand that government-linked
authorities are stabilizing the market
through share purchases. 12% of A-share
market cap still remains suspended, down
from 34% at its peak. Mainland stock
markets still remain fragile, which continues
to place pressure on offshore-listed H-
shares. We still expect volatility to continue
throughout the summer.
The reality is that Chinese interest rates are
still very high in real terms and the cost of
funding needs to come down. This should
slowly happen, as reserve requirement
ratios (RRR) and interest rates are lowered.
But this cannot happen very quickly as it
could put pressure on the currency through
capital outflows. So we would suggest that
investors take a medium term view, invest
into real franchises with sustainable
operations. would look at fundamentals first
but also be mindful of stocks that could
benefit from policy changes, particularly
those related to the 'one belt, one road'
(OBOR) development strategy, water,
intemet, environment, travel,
communications, transportation networks
and new energy.
Deutsche Asset
a Wealth Management
July 31. 2015
EMEA: European sentiment data
A slight upwards move in European sentiment
in July — as measured by the European
Commission's Business and Consumer Survey
— index — provides further evidence that the
region is still slowly getting back on its feet.
The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator
(ESI) rose by 0.5 points to 104, its highest level
since June 2011. Sentiment improved in the
industrial and, in particular, services sectors.
The rise in the export indicators index was
encouraging although this has not yet been
accompanied by a similarly strong pick-up in
actual exports.
The ESI for the European Union as a whole
rose by a larger 1.1 points to 106.6 due to
higher confidence in the U.K. and Poland.
Consumer —as opposed to business —
confidence however fell to its lowest level since
the start of 2015. It is difficult to know whether
this was largely due to the Greek crisis, which
was very much in the headlines when the
survey was made. Another big question is
whether the boost to consumption from lower
oil prices is now starting to decline.
No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts
are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may
prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and
you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your
capital may be at risk.
2
CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e)
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00263898
DB-SDNY-0117714
EFTA01457976
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