EFTA Document EFTA01357802

13 January 2015 HY Corporate Credit Energy Figure 37: New drilled gas supply breakeyen 5 gc 3.5 - E 3 • 2.5 - 2- 1.5 1 2 6 8 10 bed Sant Awe Mocketar Donn** Figure 3B: Dominion North Point (USDiminBtu) 2015 2014 8 —Henry Hub 7 Dominion 6 North Point 5 4 ‘Ivvel. N.AseaN aveu ro‘ 3 2 12 1 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 San* Sloambep Irtrow• 10, Deurche an On a year-on-year comparison we expect lower demand from normalized winter weather to be offset by growth in power utility generation demand and industrial demand. Winter-to-date weather has been quite close to average in cumulative HDDs, with generally mild weather being offset by a pronounced cold spike over 12-21 November. This cold spell also triggered freeze-offs but a return to mild weather resulted in a quick resumption in production to the highest average of the year at 71.5 bcf/c1 in the week ending 5 December. [Figure 39: Natural gas supply & demand (yoy change) Figure 40: Storage as % of working gas capacity 2.5 Supply 2.1 Demand 1W% 2 90% 1.5 80% 1 0 0.6 70% 60% 0.5 50% 40% „.; 0 ea 0 •- -0.5 -1 0 4.1 1 c2 ti I 6 A 30% 20% -1.5 10% -2 0% San VS 006414 Arad* eint 1718 bcf 4135 bcf 10Y Range (%) — — — 10Y Avg (%) 2014 2014 Forecast 2015 Forecast Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sane IS 00(414 Opera* &int Overall we expect that the market could be balanced and restore normal storage levels by mid-year if production growth averages 1.3 bcf/d yoy in 2015. Consequently, our forecast of 2.0 bcf/d yoy growth implies normal storage achieved by the end of Q1, and building surpluses relative to the 10Y average (measured by the percentage of working gas capacity) over the balance of the year. Therefore we lower our 2015 forecast for Henry Hub to USD3.75/mmBtu with downside risks over the summer in the event of more aggressive production growth. Page 44 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0044587 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00190771 EFTA01357802