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2014 Outlook Closed Trades
Trade Detail
Rationale
Risks
Opened
Entry
Closed
Exit
P/L
ly 3810s conditional bearish flattener
for zero premium: Buy ly3y + 25 bp
payer, sell DV01 weighted 1y10y
+41.5 bp payer for zero premium.
The curve should bear flatten
as soon the Fed tapers and
front end sells off
Curve steepens as rates rise
12/6/13
+212.5 bp
12/19/14
+17 bp
Ok
o ption
Receiver spreads: Buy $100mm 2y2y
ATMF/25 bp receiver spreads at 28 bp
Macro data disappoints, curve
bull flattens
Rates rise as recovery
strengthens
12/6/13
+28 bp
12/19/14
+29 bp
+19k
Option
Contingent payers: Buy ly30y ATMF
payers subject to 6s< ATMF+50 bp at
259 bp. a 67% discount to vanilla
Rate hikes unbundled from
taper, long end sells off while
6y remains anchored
Curve flattens
12/6/13
12/19/14
Dual digital option on 5s and 10s: Buy
a 6m dual digital that pays out if 5s >
2%&10s< 3.50%. offer 17%46:1
leverage)
Curve flattens beyond the
current forwards; adding .
additional leverage by shorting
the correlation between 5y and
10y rates
Either of the two conditions
is not true at expiration;
maximum loss is premium
outlay
12/6/13
12/19/14
Option
Contingent curve cap: Buy 6M 5s10s
ATMF curve caps subject to l0s <
3.50%, 5.25c offer, a 40% discount to
vanilla at 9c
Front-end of the curve remains
anchored, limited sell off in l0s Curve flattens
12/6/13
12/19/14
option
Curve caps: Buy ly single reset, ATMF
5s30s curve cap at 21.5 bp
Economic recovery disappoints
and curve remains steep
Curve flattens
12/6/13
+21.5 bp
12/19/14
0 bp
-197k
Swope B
({y
Forward despots: Receive fixed on
pay fared on
$11
$11
1 mm ly10,
y30y
5.7
mm
554.85
Slope of 10830s too flat given
level of 10y Rate
Curve flattens
3/28/14
+45 bp
3/27/15
+33 bp
-3,109k
Swap. RV
m• Receive $208.2mm 6m5y rate versus
pay $292.9mm 10y5y rate
15y par rate rich, 6m5y
exposed to repricing Fed with
Positive carry
Curve flattenening
5/20/14
+219 bp
11/19/14
+320 bp
-7,274k
SWape RV Receive 3y1y/2y1y rate spread at 108
bp
Curve slope is near its historic
levels; curve is likely to flatten
in both sell-off or rally
Curve steepens
12/6/13
+108 bp
12/19/14
+80bp
+222k
US Credit Underweight high-yield into Taper
HV
upon
should widen
spreads
the onset of the taper
Tapers gets delayed
12/6/13
12/19/14
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Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
CONFIDENTIAL
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