EFTA Document EFTA01367323

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Figure 3: Norwegian growth barrels at recent high; 200 100 .1 2131 11.1 0 2. 01„ 2013 1 14 1015 1016 100 140 I 120 1 ICC 1 8° I GO 40 I 2009 2010 2011 San Dein lint Moe lawasevie. ixialiamaat ions.lainwe pojr0 But. there is a call on US onshore oil growth - the new swing producer Although we don't expect a rapid decline in Non-OPEC production, stronger than expected global crude demand will still result in a call on US onshore production growth, although not likely until 2H 2016 culminating in a 2017 call of -500 Mb/d. We decompose the call into two parts: • We estimate that -260 Mb/d of incremental demand is needed beyond peak (2Q15) L48 production that is not otherwise being supplied from non-OPEC producers (assuming non-growing OPEC). • We anticipate a trough in US production in 1Q16 and estimate a gap of -270 Mb/d vs 2O15 production that will need to narrowed toward an estimated call on US onshore production of -7.65 MMb/d in '17. We anticipate demand for US onshore crude production to accelerate through 2017 and for the call on YoY crude growth to nearly 700 Mb/d in 2018 and to surpass 1,000 Mb/d in 2019/2020 as Non-OPEC production growth tapers off. Figure 4: Incremental Demand for US Onshore Crude Expec ed To Emerge Late 2016 (vs. 2O15 Production)... production growth (vs 1O16 production) positive in 2H 16 Figure 5:..Forwarcl rolling 12 mo call on US onshore I a "0 4' 40 40 40 Sow* Carob &n. Wad Mswaram. lEA 4, I ■ NNE .42 ■ 100 20,0 300 4010 1011 Span* Caen Bank 111040440004 tra Page 4 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058855 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205039 EFTA01367323