EFTA Document EFTA01367355

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Other Risks to the Outlook Global oil demand and Decline Rates Our base case assumes global product demand growth of 1.2 Mb/d in 2016 and 2017. To date in 2015, demand has generally surprised to the upside, with gasoline demand growth in the US (+2% YoY) stronger than anticipated, while Europe and Asia have also shown surprisingly robust growth. 10%+ incremental upside to YoY product demand growth results in a -+100 mbpd increase in the 2017 implied call on US onshore crude growth. On decline rates, we assume an average global decline rate of 1/4%/yr. We estimate a swing of 150 mbpd in the 2017 implied call on US onshore crude growth call for each 1/4% change in modeled decline rates (ex-US onshore and OPEC and compounded from 2015+). 'Figure 59: 2017 Call on US Crude Onshore Growth (YoY) 'Figure 60: 2020 Call on US Crude Onshore Growth (YciY) 9C0 I 8 ° ) € 003 SOO b 0)) g 303 XO 6 WO 0 I SW ease edl .1a14. Re I* Mold al One Odes • 10%M to VW* Clean Groan Sean* DancIft ant, nod Mann /£4 Yol'Ona nand a th. be:~ 2017 W col LIS °Wry fradctob, - Db 2026 US Onshom pool-crib, Resnt sand aon eau ca. t ippon se Me /news wont,* waScollymaleiedour eh (*Snow enlaratocks US *IMO. re OPEC teo0a6k0 adiele two Moab I O ICOO 000 0:0 0 I 600 enr In* eP • In RI*b MOSI010 OW.* Ras *IS% Arn lo YoY Orin Goal San Dena fin nanneeola a E9 Ita Cant n CMJMa //wawa* 2020 CAI we US Onion notaion - 2019 C Oca LAS Onn Froesten &vont, Permed Sanitises envenom co Mon wan we Ain spnon mono at an.. riga and exclas US eviler at oni OPEC loads» *a can itrodo Figure 61: A +5% premium to '17 demand growth increases implied onshore crude growth by -50 mbpd • • • • -10% 10% 30% San Dane. Sy* Moe AM0lonse. IEI E614 Y0Y Crown Is calcubred Se Ivied 2077 W on us Gigot Ottascrico - Dee 202605 Galva ttootakn Rotates romccitst0 *ova raw one iraelos So $0 ropers wo Ma sprokary ~en wa .0+ Marva and urokotes US Ortillat erci OPEC greacoon Asa Wen, Meals Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Figure 62: A +1/4 0,10 revision to modeled Non-OPEC decline rates increases implied onshore crude growth by -150 mbpd in 2017 over our base case -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% San Doan Ora Moe naliont 114 E(A. VOY Grow", d cabAr40 as me v‘amPo 2017 Can al US Onshore Frofurnon- Dee 2016 US Ortnartprectcotee nee romarce0 Oak,. roes on nom to mon Aqaba St ha* weal05* inn/ at 01 a no an send US ant* Oro OPEC IYOPACIXO 411041 &Yen *WO Page 3/ CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058888 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205072 EFTA01367355