EFTA Document EFTA01367377

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils North Sea The North Sea has been synonymous in recent years with mature, Non-OPEC decline, and for good reason. Since its peak production in 2000, North Sea production has steadily declined from -6 MMboe/d to current production levels of 2.5 MMboe/d, or an average decline rate of 6% YoY. This happened despite steadily increasing capex levels. Despite multi-year trends, we expect North Sea production to hold broadly flat through 2016 as several growth projects are brought on-stream and significant re-development spending over the last couple of years softens the decline of several key fields. The longer- term outlook is most strongly correlated with the successful (i.e. timely) development of the massive Johan Sverdrup field and the management of declines across the broader mature asset base. On our base case assumes declines of 12%, and estimate a 1% revision to the assumed decline to result in a swing of - 125 Mb/d to our 2017 outlook. [ Figure 115: North Sea Production Outlook, 2014-2020e {MM.° 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 o • 2014 Figure 116: Production by type (area chart of onshore vs. shallow vs, deepwater (Mbicl) 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 2014 2015 2016 •Base Sin Dane,* &rat laths /EA 2017 2018 2019 Growth Bbls 2020 I Figure 1177 Crude volume growth outlook by project status (Mid) 3500 1 3200 ZOO too 1500 - 1000 500 0 2014 2015 2003 MI 7 2016 2019 2020 esum One m..... Groat. a Cnovewn Ants —Under oeyee080.8 awe meet* Development Oro Elm Case San* Daises Bet Hs 3. ed liontenAr. /EA 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 a Shallow water (Cony) • Deepwater (Cony) Sourer Douro* 1:48. NOS Moots lEA 2020 Figure 1187 2017 Production Swing (Bear vs. Bull) of 1-240 Mb/d 2820 - poco • 1800 1620 140) - 128) • 1000 2283 Ileet Sue Dui .6m0 688‘2 shit ON growl, pgict• Swot Deux**aft KOS Madlessm. '54 2435 • 1% • 4 II 0•31n8 DIN 2510 j Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 59 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0058910 SDNY_GM_00205094 EFTA01367377