EFTA Document EFTA01367379

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Russia At 10.5 mmbpd of crude production in 2014, Russia represents -25% of Non- OPEC production; recent production growth has been driven chiefly by contributions from the conventional West Siberia basin and in our view likely to continue to be the case moving forward. While growth from green field projects is modest when compared to the country's base production, declines in mature fields will be the key driver of the forward-looking production profile. DB's house view is that Russia production will be broadly flat through 2020 with a slight ramp in the near-term as companies are expected to maintain robust activity levels. DB's Russian energy team broadly expects investment spend in Russia to track broadly flat/modestly higher in 2015 vs. 2014 (in RUB). We view impacts from current sanctions as minimal as there is no sense of urgency in developing the unconventional and Artic fields so far as it relates to sustaining the production base. Given the large size of base production, a shift of 1% in the forecasted decline rate for Russia results in a significant -300 Mb/d adjustment to our 2017 call on US onshore growth. Figure 1207 Russia Production Outlook, 2014-2020e 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 •Base . °Loc., noutic.5. 550 Aa4P.4.1weus• ?FA a Growth Bbis Figure 122. Crude volume growth outlook by project status (Mb/d) 11000 10500 IOZO NCO 10:0 5600 2014 2015 2015 aim Bas •••••unav 05005101 ADS eine C/se San Danl. 5.0. Moo rMateeee, Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 2017 2018 200 702:1 055 0550 r Orson Arms Prob.. 0•Mapet Figure 1217 Production by type (area chart of onshore vs. shallow vs. deepwater (Mb/di 10800 losoo 10400 10200 10000 9800 9600 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NOnshore (Cony) a Shallow water (Cony) Sam 00550, 8sna Wood Madone• fa Figure 123. 201 7 Production Swing (Bear vs. Bull) of -600 Mb/d 11500 11030 10111 10500 ■ 1 10= 1 I 9500 90:0 8500 81w 815 Bull a6mo timing shift on moan gorge= ■ 1% elf on deckle rates San - Ofterin Lin. Mod IA•Ornast ISA Page 61 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058912 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205096 EFTA01367379