Skip to main content
Skip to content
Case File
sd-10-EFTA01387068Dept. of JusticeOther

EFTA Document EFTA01387068

• Sell 2y EURMXN-USDMXN correlation swap at 77% Rationale • EURMXN-USDMXN implied correlations are close to the highest levels since 2007 (see graph 1) • This has been driven by MXN implied volatilities trading at their highest levels relative to EURUSO volatility since the financial crisis, largely a result of concerns regarding the Mexico elections in 2018 (see graph 2) • Since 2007 the highest ly realized correlation is 87% and the lowest is 11%. For 2y the highest is 83% and the low

Date
Unknown
Source
Dept. of Justice
Reference
sd-10-EFTA01387068
Pages
1
Persons
0
Integrity
Loading PDF viewer...

Summary

• Sell 2y EURMXN-USDMXN correlation swap at 77% Rationale • EURMXN-USDMXN implied correlations are close to the highest levels since 2007 (see graph 1) • This has been driven by MXN implied volatilities trading at their highest levels relative to EURUSO volatility since the financial crisis, largely a result of concerns regarding the Mexico elections in 2018 (see graph 2) • Since 2007 the highest ly realized correlation is 87% and the lowest is 11%. For 2y the highest is 83% and the low

Ask AI About This Document

0Share
PostReddit

Extracted Text (OCR)

EFTA Disclosure
Text extracted via OCR from the original document. May contain errors from the scanning process.
Sell 2y EURMXN-USDMXN correlation swap at 77% Rationale EURMXN-USDMXN implied correlations are close to the highest levels since 2007 (see graph 1) This has been driven by MXN implied volatilities trading at their highest levels relative to EURUSO volatility since the financial crisis, largely a result of concerns regarding the Mexico elections in 2018 (see graph 2) Since 2007 the highest ly realized correlation is 87% and the lowest is 11%. For 2y the highest is 83% and the lowest is 44%. Whilst current levels of ly and 2y realized correlations are close to their highest levels, 3m realized correlation has fallen from recent highs to now sit close to current strikes (see graphs 3 & 4) The correlation swap provides a limited loss way of fading elevated MXN volatilities and buying cheap EURUSD volatility, which could perform in the event of rising Italian election and Catalonia independence concerns Graphs Graph 1: EURMXN-USDMXN implied correlation at highs 100% 803£ A -Axe 1- 60% 50% 43% 30% Xs% 2207 2336 2009 — EIAMMUSDPAXN ly implialtorr EuRfAXISUSL*004 2y impliedear 2010 IOU 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Graph 3: 1v realized correlation vs. strike 10014 10% 60% a 20% CS L EURMXN-USOkiltN 1y mat car EuRlAxt4-USDhOtti 3m eel car r -X% 2060 2303 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: Deutsche Bonk Bloomberg Finance L.P. Disclaimer: htto://ctiobahnarkets.dts.cominew/content/3045.html From: Martin Zeman Sent: Tuesday, November 28, 2017 12:42 PM To: Paul Barrett Cc: Stewart Oldfield < ; ham Osullivan < Graph 2: MXN vols elevated compared to EURUSO vols 0 -5 -ID -15 -20 -25 • 2007 2008 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2315 2016 2017 Eu gt.5O6 WM% ly inwlSd e$ spend EtiRUSD-USINAM iY impied vial spied Graph 4: 2v realized correlation vs. strike >; Xavier Avila Subject: DB FX trade idea: EURZAR-USDZAR correlation swap Paul, 100% 8396 n 60% 2096 \ EURMXICUSDS1042y mai CO" EURIAXI+LISDIAXN 3m roll car 0% -2016 2007 2003 20% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ;Joshua Shoshan CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0089128 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00235312 EFTA01387068

Technical Artifacts (2)

View in Artifacts Browser

Email addresses, URLs, phone numbers, and other technical indicators extracted from this document.

Phone303 2009
Phone315 2016

Related Documents (6)

Dept. of JusticeOtherUnknown

EFTA Document EFTA01435514

Subject: Re: [/] Trade Idea: Tax Reform Pure-Play / Long-Short Basket Pair [C] From: Paul Barrett <a Date: Tue, 26 Sep 2017 18:26:56 -0400 To: Martin Zeman Cc: Vahe Stepanian < Xavier Avila Joshua Shoshan Stewart Oldfield Davide-A Sferrazza < I have an RTY vs SPY outperformance option on. Would take a look once the docs are in place. Looks interesting. Is it one bullet swap or two separate legs? Paul Barrett Alpha Group Capital LLC 142 W 57th Street, 11th Floor, New York, NY 10019

5p
Dept. of JusticeOtherUnknown

EFTA Document EFTA01416150

Subject: RE: DB FX trade idea: EURZAR-USDZAR correlation swap From: Xavier Avila ‹ > Date: Wed, 06 Dec 2017 13:15:15 -0500 To: "Paul Barrett ( Cc: Stewart Oldfield Joshua Shoshan Martin Zeman Paul, we tried to call you on the corr swap. We spoke to trading and our bid-offer prices are below, a bit better than we were discussing in both currencies on the bid side. I also attach the t/s in ZAR ready to go just in case you want to review. Let's discuss when you have a sec. Thanks. ly US

8p
Dept. of JusticeOtherUnknown

EFTA Document EFTA01425460

Subject: RE: Frieze NY - registration status [I] From: Sarah Rafferty < > Date: Tue, 17 Apr 2018 14:23:26 -0400 To: Stewart Oldfield ‹ > Cc: Bradley Gillin Classification: For internal use only Yes — that was the day he showed up last year. Regards, Sarah fcid:80063086-E6B1-464A-83C1-C22D037DB24E@lanl Sarah Rafferty Director I Marketing - Americas Deutsche Bank Wealth Management Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas Postal address: 345 Park Avenue, 24th floor, New York, NY 10154 Te

32p
Dept. of JusticeOtherUnknown

EFTA Document EFTA01435952

Subject: DB FX trade idea: EURZAR-USDZAR correlation swap From: Martin Zeman Date: Tue, 28 Nov 2017 To: "Paul Barrett ( Cc: Stewart Oldfield Xavier Avila Joshua Shosha Liam Osulliva Paul, 12:42:02 -0500 this could be an interesting trade on ZAR without really getting directional exposure to it. The payout is defined as a $amount per point of correlation. So that means selling the correlation at 80% for $10k per point of correlation is a max loss of $200k. Let me know if you'd like

4p
Dept. of JusticeOtherUnknown

EFTA Document EFTA01434579

Subject: Re: Paul, this looks cheap here -> (BFW) Ferroglobe Raised to Overweight on Valuation: JPMor an [I) From: Stewart Oldfield Date: Wed, 04 Apr 2018 15:17:33 -0400 To: Martin Zeman Out of sight, out of mind. Stewart Oldfield, CFA, CAIA Director Deutsche Deutsche 345 Park Tel. Mobile Email Bank Trust Company Americas Bank Wealth Management Avenue, New York, NY 10154 Securities offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. On Apr 4, 2018, at 2:50 PM, Martin Zeman O> wrote:

3p
Dept. of JusticeOtherUnknown

EFTA Document EFTA01434335

Subject: RE: [/] Trade Idea: Tax Reform Pure-Play / Long-Short Basket Pair [C] From: Martin Zeman Date: Tue, 26 Sep 2017 18:32:41 -0400 To: Paul Barrett Cc: Vahe Stepanian Xavier Avila Joshua Shoshan Stewart Oldfield Davide-A Sferrazza One bullet swap. Let's do some smart trades once we have the docs in place. From: Paul Barrett [mailto: Sent: Tuesday, Se tember 26 2017 6:27 PM To: Martin Zeman Cc: Vahe Stepanian < Xavier Avila errazza Stewart Subject: Re: [/] Trade Idea: Tax

6p

Forum Discussions

This document was digitized, indexed, and cross-referenced with 1,400+ persons in the Epstein files. 100% free, ad-free, and independent.

Annotations powered by Hypothesis. Select any text on this page to annotate or highlight it.