EFTA Document EFTA01387382

9 January 2018 FX Blueprint Theme #8: Niagara falls - buy USD/CAD There should be no doubting the paradigm. Estimates of the Fed minus the Bank of Canada terminal rate (both using the lyr swap rate in 3 years) explains over 90% of the variation in USD/CAD over the past year. In predicting future USD/CAD movements, that is the logical starting point. Currently the terminal rate spread is close to zero, having oscillated between -25bps (Fed rate c BoC rate) to +25bps (Fed rates.> Boc rates