EFTA Document EFTA01447411

Jeffrey - Have you looked at China Gas (384.HK)? Consider tactical position - long equity - on potential for a Russia/China nat gas agreement. Gazprom (GAZP.RX, ruble denominated shares) is likely the more common implementation (both charts below). would argue that the new pipeline diverts existing supply for Gazprom, where it is incremental earnings growth for the likes of China Gas. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/09/russia-china-gas-iduSL6NON11XM20140409 The original call is on The 3rd Plenum's commitment to environmental reform (specifically reduction of carbon emissions by increasing nat gas usage). The near-term catalyst stems from this week's developments in the ukranian-Russian crisis. Not surprisingly, with the chill from the western world threatening demand for Russia's commodity, Putin's accelerated conversations to the east. Market chatter suggests that negotiations on a Russia-china pipeline could divert 38bn cubic meters of gas per year over to china, and that Putin has sped up negotiations with the intent of turning his presently scheduled May 20 visit to China, into a signing ceremony for an export contract. The stock is a hedge fund name. The DB analyst has been less fond (latest rating is hold with a 9 HKD target). I think this is a tactical, geopolitically-driven entry point on a name that's also a compelling long-term growth investment. Right now it's trading close to 25x 2015 EPS ests of 0.50 HKD, bull case is meaningful upside potential in earnings on an uptake of nat gas in China. China Gas (384 HK is fairly liquid - -5mm share avg daily volume over the last month) Tazia China Gas lyr Price History (Embedded image moved to file: picOSS49.gif) Gazprom lyr Price History (Embedded image moved to file: pic16859.gif) Forwarded by Tazia smith/db/dbcom on 04/16/2014 09:16 AM From: Pierluigi Amicarella/db/swiss/dbcom@dbcom To: Date: 04/16/2014 05:55 AM subject: European oil [I) For non advisory clients only In a "sector rotating" market in favour of value large cap names Oil could be a relative bet to take, as the sector is: 1) not expensive in terms of valuations 2) favoured by the upper trending of WTI and Brent prices 3) impacted by better capital discipline (capex) expectations Lucas Herrmann, DB research on ROE trend is starting to be more optimistic as well: "central to the deterioration in return on capital at the integrated oils has been the balance sheet build of non-productive capital. At the super-majors alone, the addition over a decade of c.S250bn of work in progress and exploration assets has proven a material drag on sector profitability clipping CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 102036 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00248220 EFTA01447411