EFTA Document EFTA01449219

30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax G10 FX Valuation Monitor Lines in the Sand" [Figure 1: The euro looks expensive and the dollar cheap 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 .1 29.0 25.8 19.8 15.0 12.0 10.5 7.0 Figure 27 The dollar is 9% cheap to fair value 130 120 110 100 90 80 pp' V ...is JP.41)4 1 -2.3 70 -8.5 -12.3 NZD AUD CHF CAD EUR NOK GBP SEK USD JPY Said DS PYR•rwal I FIgure 3: EUR/USD: The euro is expensive tltough remains within the 20% threshold ... 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 60 rrr Utt)11A1 Agit ••••••.. 73 76 78 82 85 86 91 94 97 00 03 08 09 Seim Da aRaikaarch 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 so 12 Fig We 4' LISIX1PV7 The yen is very cheap to fair value EUFVUSD — — —• 20% Band r 1.6 350 PPP EURUSD 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 San. DS IltReenn [Figure 5: USD/GBP: GBP is expensive ... 095 085 075 085 055 045 • 035 • .er 025 USD/G8P PPP uSDiG8P 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 Sane DB FX Rase A 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 300 250 200 150 100 0.6 50 095 0.85 0 75 065 0 55 045 035 0 25 A ''D.JF^e 350 • 300 250 • 200 150 100 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 OS 09 13 Sant Le Pt Iteneich 'Figure 6: USD/CHF: as well as CHF 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 San*. DO +X Roserch 'Our measure of relative PPP is calculated using long-term averages from Jan-80 to Dec-04 and deflating by monthly CPI differentials. We refer to current spot rates as 'cheap' or 'expensive' with explicit reference to this measure of fair valuation: these statements are not intended in any way to be 'buy' or 'ser recommendations. Page 18 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB,SDNY•0104531 SONY GM_00250715 EFTA01449219