EFTA Document EFTA01449223

30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax Figure 13: Equity flows tend to respond with a lag to market performance 230 180 • 130 • 80 • 30 • -20 iece, -120 — DSP Freon %eke -170 V< —Set 500 OW 777981 83 86878691 93 96 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 Swot 00040. MR <At 1,001/1, on> fliearterg !rune I 0 28 24 2.0 16 12 013 04 00 Figure 14: The dollar is increasingly following net equity flows ConeletIon(6 mo hg)-58% -100 4 76 1.O 470 465 460 455 450 445 440 435 430 425 420 99 01 03 OS 07 09 11 13 V Sant Ot4100A. Sent US Treaty and 10000000 Fiwwe (0 Figure IS; Generally inverse link between foreign interest IFiguie 16: The dollar and agency & corp bond inflows in USTs versus US equities SOO foreign 8ufoliates°, US Tenswis - Fe ign Pu Winn 01 US him 460 920 1£0 40 i thi,4 I •"*.asen Ves, 603 -460 - no - 180 - 40 -100 - ACID 78 80 fQ 84 86 88 93 92 94 96 98 CO 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source 08 PX Research as us Nasser Canada (CAD bn) Figure 17: The basic balance has generally been in a downtrend since 2007 ea —now Balance 40 so cArvug) -Quer* Average es) 40 20 - 0 — -.20 40 -613 - -80 - -100 Dec-90 Saito 08 fx 170.00•Ch ON 1 ?MI ' Dec-S4 Dec-98 Dec-o2 Dec-06 Dec-to 110 1 05 1 00 0.95 0.90 MSS 080 0.75 070 0.65 oho Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 803 700 033 603 403 303 200 103 0 .100 -200 90 —Corp and agency Borels06 —Cerise fiords0a 1.1631, 4 00*,..04 10 12 92 94 96 98 CO 02 04 06 09 Smoak Dam:he 800.4 US lent" end wag —LP 100 4.8 4.7 46 4.6 44 43 42 Figure It: as net FDI outflows continue 40 20 0 -20 4o J Ms -90 FOI Outer Used Investments —Inwast Cent Investme Mar-97 roar-98 PAM-02 Mar-06 Mar-IC Sow* 08 FX Rinewc eV How 40 20 0 -20 .10 Page 27 CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0104540 SDNY_GM_00250724 EFTA01449223