EFTA Document EFTA01449227

30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax 1 - Figure 38: Bilateral basic balance explains 84% of Figure 37: EUR/USD strongly correlated (0.8S) with bilateral basic balance with the US 160 110 • 60 - 10 - -40 - USD — Bilateml Basic Belance.legged (6m) EURUSDlrhs) -90 • 440 - .190 • Correlation= -0.88 .240 Jan -99 Janet nose gen% Jer.07 minas Jen-11 Jen.13 Sant 06 FX Resowch 4 Anon 0 80 1.05 130 - 1.66 1.80 Figure 39: The bilateral basic balance with the US hes moved in favor of the US recently... EUR/US0 movements since inception of the euro 2 CO I60 1W 1a 120 103 GUAUSObro0336•Sionerei Bow esurces. .1 129 Semple 1989M6-2007M4 Observehon 97 Adjusted Fliqtared60 8410 rio•cnuRus0 lent? .145-01 J. Jena )8607 3509 Joni, Jan.13 Soon De yNMMews N Baal 2 03 eo 150 1a 120 1.0) 010 J Figure 40: ...as US purchases of euro area bonds have continued to be replaced by sales 160 p —Bears Bodo lialano• r 150 100 -Nst boo Thaw Own 100 Spam hada Baena j. 11:4) 60 60 00 O 0 20 -SO 40 .20 .100 -100 -150 -160 -GO -2C0 -SOO 250 -too - -260 Doc-98 Dac-00 Dic.02 Doc-04 0=-003 Doc-OS Doc-10 Di -12 Sant DS PX Amect, eV Einar [Figure 41: Net portfolio flows have turned inwards... Iwo —Portfolb Outflows Portfolio Inflows 600- -µ,, Net Pontolo Fbwo 603 - 400 - 200 0 -200 - -403 403 - 403 Jen-Celan-02 Jan.04 Janet( senee Jan-10 J en-12 \ SCASCII babel@ ant and Reaper Certraillant 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -SOO Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. USD Bn - 121A MO Monet 12M Ka Corpora* - 121.1 mr. Ion bpri stoats 12m 11•1 fo a1pn Boni --..irmSee tgas 100 .20 .6e .100 Dec.77 Doc.02 Dcc.67 Dec.92 Ds -97 Dtc.02 Ds-07 Dec 12 sane Owner. Ss n • oral OF :hairy 1 Figure 42: .. AS equity inflows surpass the bond outflows 350 —Plot Bondssod Nobs Flows 300 Net MIA Fbors —Not 8glib/ftbites 260 200 150 100 50 0 -60 -100 -150 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jeri.07 Jan+39 Jan-11 Jan13 Spun DAMON* Ss* .n areicer Leval aril 350 - 300 - 260 - 200 - 150 -100 - 50 0 --50 - -100 -150 Page 31 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0104544 SDNY_GM_00250728 EFTA01449227