EFTA Document EFTA01449263

28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Deutsche Bank TI FX Valuation Monitor: Lines in the Sand (PPM* Figure 1: The euro is expensive and the dollar cheap 40 30 34 8533.29 21.65 130 120 110 20 15.7815.69 11.9 100 10 6.60 90 1.50 0 80 [ AUD NZD CHF CAD NOK EUR GBP SEK AP/4 -10 y 70 -10.10 60 jl -20 Figure 2: The dollar is 12% cheap to fair value t‘9 Figure 3: EUR/USD: The euro is expensive though remains within the 20% threshold ... 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 Figure 5: USD/GBP: as well as sterling ... C 0.85 0.76 0.65 0.55 0.45 0.35 0.25 bk. A i s re 4/rvis ___• 20% Band LISCVG8P PPP L60;GBP 0.96 r 085 0.75 065 0.55 0.45 0.35 0.25 13 73 77 81 85 SOW* e PrAW:ti 89 93 97 01 05 09 73 78 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 08 09 12 130 120 110 100 Figu e 4: USD/JPY: ...The yen is expensive 350 300 250 200 160 100 350 • 300 • 250 200 • 150 60 • 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 100 50 Figure 6 USD/CHF: CHF is expensive 38 3.3 2$ 2.3 18 13 0.8 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 — — 20% 84o4 USUCHP — PPP USD/CHF 73 77 at ions OP Cx Ciesorol 13 37 32 27 22 17 12 07 'Our measure of relative PPP is calculated using long-term averages from Jan-80 to Dec-04 and deflating by monthly CPI differentials. We refer to current spot rates as 'cheap' or 'expensive with explicit reference to this measure of fair valuation; these statements are not intended in any way to be 'buy' or 'sell' recommendations. Page 12 Deutsche Bank AG/Lonclon CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 104600 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250784 EFTA01449263