EFTA Document EFTA01449269

78 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Deutsche Bank a G10 Capital Flows and Basic Balance Monitor United States (USD bn) Figure 1: The basic balance is on a recovery path over the last one year 203 100 0 -100 -200 300 400 .500 -600 7t0 — Bsso Biro. usoivx RA La' Tress usenmnue thetradebelarc•Z‘V Net lotenn US nnowsleti. US 12m 44cl-ranted) 63 00 02 04 1:6 08 10 12 4.75 4.70 4.66 460 4.65 4.50 4.45 440 4 35 430 4.26 420 Figure 3: The private basis balance has been diverging from the overall balance 20C - 100 - 0 ;Ci 200 100 0 65 55 .100 400 45 400 .2C0 35 403 -303 25 40) 4% -50) Pine Bars Baas 15 400 —arise Bas Banos .600 6 .703 -700 .5 93 96 97 99 01 03 Ch 07 09 11 13 70 Figure 2: as non treasury portfolio outflows have remain positive 800 - 600 - 400 200 0 400 400 400 400 - nes Bads, µ.t sse.euews suislo ins Eataia 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 06 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 • Figure 4:as official inflows become significant Figure 5: Official inflows inversely correlated with private inflows since the late 1990s 820 USD Bn. 820 11•4 Mimi Flows 420• Not Pnesee nanlessulyiess 320• 220• 120 20 "x—rrr•--i-t4L-ai41/ P -80 788002 84 86 88 90 92 94 469800020406031012 festeCt 08e SStn se0 sae 620 - 620 - 420 - 320 - 220 - 120 20 -60 USD Bn —lietOfficill'unnesof 034•0110 Boss SUMS( Putehansof Agency BO MO 144 0082 IS 66 00 90 92 94 96 80 00 02 04 06 00 10 12 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -403 -COO -800 160 100 60 0 -60 -100 -150 Figure 6: Relative to the private basic balance, the dollar is expensive 200 100 0 400 .200 400 ACC USD Bn -500 — Pin. Bs* Bfl —U1M.14161 400 IS , Feted UST Press BanoBeenceeiles) •700 3.83 £0949696979899 000102 03 04 051160708091011 12 13 V 4 e0 4.60 4.40 4.20 4.00 Sous O8F X 'Won" std ux Noss Page 18 Deutsche Bank AG/London CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104606 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250790 EFTA01449269