EFTA Document EFTA01449288

28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Deutsche Bank El Figure 13: In EM, the main driver of reserve growth has been intervention (in USD bn) 2700 2300 1900 1500 1103 700 303 Total rum* m EM wwr.ut lows, <9i5 total quirMy Omni. —Total yoluabn dims* 2703 3300 1900 1500 1100 700 300 -10) -100 1999 2001 2002 2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 2011 04 02 04 02 04 02 04 02 04 Swes CO A ' ,elem., Figure 15: First active diversification, then leaning against the wind 15 10 5 - 0 -5 - Diventilloben Ca100e a EIJILMO is in 41 Leaning against the nd ... .Etefr Mao a ma paiman - EUR shasol apa. OM,* 210)02 24 20MCU 20a On MOW loCti ea tenet Scam CO RR IMF. -225 -175 -125 -75 -25 25 75 125 Figure 14: In EM, the dollar share fell steadily during 2002-04 then stabilized to 70 so 50 90 20 10 0 S US eleiss Eons — Yen — 9607e — Deb, Frain ---0001CUINneen 70 60 60 40 30 20 10 0 1 99 2000 2002 2003 2005 2006 2008 2009 2011 2012 01 03 01 03 01 03 01 03 01 03 Scumm COS 0,1, 0 15 away,. Figure 16: China has steadily diversified away from USD since 2004 (our estimates) us: en - 50 ID 70 I0 011150 m CIMfa 000 5°0 2500 - 2000 19:4 I 000 • 0 5.5590 Olt-9910.0l 0002 tuned Ote-03 .007 Oec.08 -un-10 00 I I i5n• I2 :mace OS trexanefXRannen, Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 43 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104631 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250815 EFTA01449288