EFTA Document EFTA01451214

9 January 2014 FX Blueprint: Thin end of the wedge Theme #9: Pole dances, TRY tr€ps • Go long PLN and HUF, buoyed by competitive REERs and proximity to strong German demand, and stay short TRY, as reserves are insufficient to act as a buffer and where external deficits require further adjustment to restore competitiveness Aggregated EMEA FX correlation (3m rolling correlation of daily changes) have dropped to levels only seen once post-crisis (prior to the Fed opening the door to tap