EFTA Document EFTA01458292

1 September 2015 Special Report: The treat Accumulation' Is Over: FX Reserves Have Peaked. Beware OT central banks. Regressing EUR/USD on the 2Y real rate spread and global reserves in first differences-the latter entering with a two-month lag to ensure strict exogeneity-indicates that the above shock would be worth a depreciation of 6 cents. This first estimate proved surprisingly robust when using dynamic vector- autoregressive models again to deal with endogeneity and lags more properly