EFTA Document EFTA01458604

Mob ;patent Focot lt.o tau PCUlta lewortmoro tattle bght, Atlitnittt pimp:taloa: Portia.° tonotoon ‘dcw: High-conviction ideas Selected investment ideas to complement wealth-management clients' portfolios Long U.S. dollar Rica initiated September 1, 2015 Reference measure Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index vs. cash' Investment horizon 3 12 months Performance trincie initiation In the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, recent euro and Japanese yen strength has outweighed continued emerging-market currency weakness, resulting Ina tall in the index. In the coming months, we expect developed- market currencies to start to weaken again, due in part to monetary-policy divergence, prompting a more marked U.S.-dollar appreciation. Risks would include an unexpected slowdown In U.S. growth (particularly relative to other large regions). Global financials Idea initiated July 1, 2015 Reference measure MSC( AC World Financials indeot vs. MSCI AC World index's Investment horizon 3 - 12 months Portermance since inmanon Financials have lagged the broader equity market recently. Aside from general worries around the global economy (e.g. China), the low-yield environment has impacted margins and the effect of increased regulation remains a concern. However, on a 3- to 12-month horizon, we believe that the turn in the U.S. interest-rate cycle is a positive, as should be rising dividends and share buybacks. Valuations may also appeal, but selectivity is key here, particularly in the emerging markets. Indian equities Idea initiated May 1, 2015 Reference measure CN4I4ifer III' II ridex vs oiniii••••••• -it Investment horizon 3 - 12# months PerfOrManCti since in)!tiallon Over the last month, Indian equities have fallen back but have still proved resilient compared to many other emerging markets. We believe india's external-financing position will probably mean that it is less affected by rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) than many other Asian economies although it will not be immune. Domestically, accommodative monetary policy and expectations of further reforms are also positives. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could cut rates further later this year. German housing Idea initiated April 1, 2015 Reference measure MSCI IPD OFIX Germany vs cash" Investment hotizon 24+ months Performance sinas imitation 0 With ECB quantitative easing set to continue for some time, Eurozone monetary policy is likely to remain too loose for the German economy, where a recent faltering in investor confidence has yet to translate into any meaningful reduction in economic activity. Loose monetary policy is unlikely to translate into a real-estate "bubble", but German housing prices look likely to continue to rise at a modest pace. High-conviction ideas may not be suitable for all investors. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and your capital may be at risk You might not get back the amount originally invested Many point in time. Some investments may not be suitable for all investors and investors should seek professional advice before investing. The examples above are shown for illustrative purposes only ancl should not be considered to be an offer or solicitation, advice or recommendation. U, 0 trap. kixecia.EardolOciotty 2015 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0118587 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00264771 EFTA01458604