EFTA Document EFTA01458611

25 September 2015 FX Forecasts and Valuations: Don't throw in the towel In Table 1 above we outline a framework for thinking about the USD, and the differentiation between different states of risk appetite. It is the different potential policy responses to risk appetite that have confused the picture on the majors recently. State 1: This state is risk neutral/positive. The working assumption for much of the year was that the risk environment would not derail a Fed tightening cycle. In St