EFTA Document EFTA01458980

8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Figure 16: Private sector credit growth back to pre-credit 'bubble levels —Net borrowing of the non-ftenciel private sector 20 %of GDP. seer 15 10 5 0 -5 .10 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Sauce Dead* Sent Itserarth. Now AntociLI. f.Yid It was SEA 'Figure 17: Cumulative inflows into US funds since the 'Euro area debt crisis 80% 7% — US Ecnat$44 — US MM 60% —US Gout tends 60% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% —US High Yield -10% -20% Jun-2010 Jun-2011 Jur-2012 Jun-2013 An-2014 Sane Ciniectie Sent Amin* EOM (Geo) Politics: The Middle East will likely remain, directly or indirectly, an important source of (geo) political risk. One direct effect would be via the rebuilding of risk premium in the oil market (with the associated implications on inflation and bond markets). An indirect political risk would manifest itself in terms of the debate around the handling of the refugee crisis, with associated implications on border controls and by extension the functioning of the single market. This could support anti-EU sentiment in general and be particularly relevant in the UK ahead of the EU referendum. Francis Yared, (44) 20 7545 4017 Jerome Saragoussi +1(212)250-3529 Abhishek Singhania, (44) 20 7547 4458 Dominic Konstam, (1)212 250 9753 Stuart Sparks, (1)212 250 0332 Jun-2015 Page 48 Deutsche Bank AG/London CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0119155 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00265339 EFTA01458980