EFTA Document EFTA01458990

8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Financial markets & gold We maintain our bearish outlook for gold. Although Fed funds futures have priced in a normalisation of US policy at various points since 2009, we believe the first step will now more likely than not take place this month. Moreover, a tightening cycle in US monetary policy is regarded as long overdue based on the Taylor rule, with a strong likelihood of further steps in the new year. While a 25 bps h