EFTA Document EFTA01459044

As a result, most focus on 16 December beyond the hike decision will be on clues for what to expect next from the Fed How to read the Fed FOMC meeting on 16 December 'I The statement lrella • Assessment of US economy Guidance on future policy - Pace of hikes - Reinvestment policy* Discussion of risks, e.g., global growth, oil prices, dollar • Last sentence of statement, i.e., signal that policy will remain accommodative • Any dissents to statement 3 Dots plot (individual members' projections of Fed funds rate) Deutsche Bank • Only marginal downward revisions expected • Long-run median may come down - leading to lower dots trajectory r4titei3 1ribitt , : oi nt hateitha mtr;a cti ttroateh db 5: irn 2 Economic projections bor.. prinlaw• 0.1•Nelt el Ia. ft,e, 4 S. *Little change expected • Some scope for lowering: - Inflation forecast: dovish, signals gradual pace - Unemployment forecast: hawkish 4 Chair Yellen press conference • Overall tone • Conditions that Fed needs to see to continue hiking • What would lead the Fed to pause or stop hiking • Guidance on reinvestment policy* and interplay between rates and reinvestments Nolo (') Cuttontly. tho Fed toinvests its maturing holdings of MBS and Troesunes purchased during OE. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0 119254 PROT1 PROT0