EFTA Document EFTA01459732

5 February 2016 Focus Europe: Dark clouds, no storm yet The Week Ahead' Hest of Europe 2, the USA • In the US, Fed chair Janet Yellen's semi-annual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee will be the key highlight for the week. In terms of data releases, it will be a relatively quiet week, with January retail sales being the focal point. Our US teem expects retail sales to improve 0.3% mom at the start of the year. Other releases include JOLTS opening, business inventory and wholesale inventory for December and consumer sentiment (prelim) for February. • In the UK, trade statistics, industrial production and construction output for December will be the key data to watch. An improvement in the oil balance dominated November trade data; we expect further slight reduction in the trade deficit in December. Industrial activity disappointed in November, and warmer-than-usual weather in December could mean further weakness; we expect IP to fall 0.3% mom in December. In GEE, prelim Q4-15 GDP will be released in Poland, Romania and Hungary. Key Data & Events Day Tim* IGMTIRalease DR Forecast Consensus Pmvious Mon 08.00 Czech Industrial production (Dec) (5.7%) 08.00 Czech Merchandise trade balance IDecl CZKI4.3bn 08.00 Czech Unemployment rate (Jan! 6.2%rate me 09.30 UK RAC Sales Like-For-Like Ye? (Jan) 0.10% 09.30 UK Trade balance non EU25 (Dec) -GEIP2.40bn -GBP2.46bn 09.30 UK Visible trade balance (Dec) -GBP10Abn -GBP10.6bn 11.00 US NFIB small business optimism (Jan) 94.5 96.2 15.00 US JOLTS opening (Dec) 6431 15.00 US Wholesale inventories (Dec) -0.2% -0.1% -0.3%12.2%) Wed 09.30 UK IP (Dec) -03%10.8%) -0.7%(0.8%) 09.30 UK Manufacturing production (Dec) 0.2%1.1.3%) -OA% (-1.2%) 19.00 US Treasury budget balance (Jan) -USD14.4bn Thu 13.30 UK RICS house pike balance Wan) 50% Fri 07.00 Romania GDP Iprelind (G4I (3.6%) 08.00 Hungary GDP (prelim)K4) (2.5%) (2.4%) 09.00 Poland GDP (prelim) ICA) (3.5%) (3.5%) 09.30 UK Construction output (Dec! I-1.1%) 13.30 US Export piton (Jan) -0.6% -1.1%(41.5%) 13.30 US Import prices (Jan) -1.5% (.6.8%) -1.2% (-8.2%) 13.30 US Non-Petroleum Import pekes (Jan) -0.4% (-3.7%) 13.30 US Retail sales ex autos (Jan) 0.3% 0.1% -0.1%11.2%) 13.30 US Retail sales (Jan) 0.3% 0.1% -0.1%12.2%) 15.00 US Business inventories (Dec) 0.2% -0.2%(I.6%) 15.00 US Consumer sentiment prelim (Feb) 92.5 92.0 dbCalendet For more forward-looking calendars of data and events, as wallas various tools to analyse data surprises go to our new online calendar http:ilgm-secure.db.comidlCalendar Wed 10 Fed's Yellen to appear before House Financial Services Committee - 15:00 GMT Thu 11 Fed's Yellen to appear before House Financial Services Committee - 15:00 GMT Fed's Williams to hold speech on health and the economy in Los Fed's Dudley to answer questions at press briefing in New Angeles - 18:30 GMT York - 13:00 GMT Molar cede and •..ten In* LS se or ebnolin Roan se* w•Dbemel Ina Mt ee nate coplin is Scut* Adman I Sabo i Mot* Bloynbieg awe* tp, Rates, SSP, C6 Gable Mtn Anew on Page 26 Deutsche Bank AG/London CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0120382 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00266566 EFTA01459732